Huawei's New Technology Catalyzes Semiconductor Market, Hong Kong's Chip Sector Gains Collectively

On Tuesday morning, the Hong Kong stock market's semiconductor sector experienced a collective upsurge, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), SMIC (00981), and ASMPT (00522) all nearly同步 surging by nearly 15%, with GigaDevice (03986) also rising by nearly 10%. Triggering this round of market activity is a theory released by Huawei on May 25th that is capable of reshaping industry narratives – "Tao's Law (τ)".

Huawei's "Second Curve" Declaration

Moore's Law has dominated the semiconductor industry for over half a century, with its core logic being: every two years approximately, the number of transistors per unit area doubles, and performance improves with the miniaturization of processes. However, this curve is approaching its physical limits, and the research and development costs of advanced processes are soaring exponentially. Major players like TSMC and Samsung's bets on 2nm and 1.4nm nodes have left the entire industry struggling with the burden.

Huawei's proposed "Tao's Law" takes a different path. According to an analysis report by CITIC Securities, the law is centered on the core principle of "time scaling" and does not take the physical reduction of geometric dimensions as the sole measurement dimension. Instead, it achieves a performance leap through the optimization and iteration of system topology structures, covering the collaborative evolution of four levels: transistors, circuits, chips, and systems. The "People's Sharp Comment" under the People's Daily rarely endorsed a corporate technical theory, categorizing it as "a second curve beyond Moore's Law, enriching the global semiconductor industry development path".

Policy Catalysis Overlaps, Forming Resonance

Recently, China's National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference, clearly instructing large models to increase efforts to adapt to domestic computing power chips, elevating the collaborative relationship between the two to the level of policy guidance. Analysts point out that this statement means "Chinese domestic large models use domestic chips" has been upgraded from industry呼吁 to top-level deployment, and the potential demand curve for computing power chips such as Huawei's Ascend and Cambricon is expected to be revalued as a result.

The overlap of these two forces provides a fundamental logic support for today's increase in the value of the Hong Kong stock market's semiconductor sector, rather than purely emotional speculation.

The Imaginative Space for "Changing Lanes to Overtake"

CITIC Securities identified the core investment logic in its research report: the breakthrough for China's semiconductors does not lie in a frontal attack on advanced process nodes—that is an off-limits area under the blockade of ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines—but in leveraging the existing accumulation of domestic capabilities in 3D integration, advanced packaging, synchronous optimization of chip design and manufacturing, and optical communication, to compensate for process generation differences through system architecture innovation.

This path is not without precedent. NVIDIA's aggressive investment in Chiplet packaging and HBM memory stacking in recent years is the best footnote to system-level optimization overtaking pure process competition. If Huawei's "Tao's Law" can form a consensus on methodology at the industrial level, Hua Hong Semiconductor's expertise in specialty processes and advanced packaging, SMIC's domestic wafer foundry capacity, and ASMPT's layout in the packaging and testing equipment sector will all obtain new valuation anchors on this "second curve".

Market Sentiment and Risk Warnings

It is worth noting that today's price increase is concentrated at the opening, with some individual stocks having high turnover rates, indicating a clear amplification effect on short-term sentiment. "Tao's Law" is currently more in the theoretical framework stage, and it still needs time to be tested from the concept to verifiable product performance breakthroughs. In addition, the ongoing US-China semiconductor control game and geopolitical risks remain the sword of Damocles hanging over the sector.

However, for long-term investors, this may be a narrative turning point worth taking seriously: China's semiconductor industry is trying to use a set of rules defined by itself in a game to hedge against a technological blockade where it does not have the first move.