IBM Surges by 8%, Trump's Old Bullish Video Spreads, Barclays Recommends Accumulation
Claire Weston
IBM jumped over 8% at Monday's open — up 40% since May — after an old video of Trump praising IBM's CEO spread on social media over the weekend, but the real drivers are a quantum-chip factory, a $10 billion investment plan, and Barclays initiating coverage with an overweight rating.
How did an old video move the stock?
Some outlets tied Monday's jump to a video that went viral over the weekend: Trump praising IBM CEO Arvind Krishna at a White House business roundtable recorded on December 10, 2025.
The clip is six months old and contains no new information. This means → it acted as a fuse, igniting multiple catalysts that had already built up.
In plain terms = the video was a sentiment trigger, not a fundamental change; what actually supports the rally is in the cards below.
Quantum-chip factory plus $10 billion — what is IBM betting on?
On May 21, IBM signed a letter of intent with the U.S. federal government to apply for $1 billion in CHIPS Act incentives to set up Anderon — a standalone quantum-chip manufacturer that IBM calls "the first U.S. foundry focused solely on quantum-chip fabrication."
On May 28, IBM doubled down: $10 billion over five years for quantum computing, with $5 billion earmarked for AI-related open-source software.
This reflects a dual-track push — government subsidies plus proprietary capital — to move quantum from lab concept to manufacturing reality.
Barclays initiates coverage — why not on the quantum story?
Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow initiated coverage on Monday with an overweight rating and a $350 price target, driving IBM up roughly 11% pre-market to $330.11.
The surprise: his bull case rests not on quantum but on software — a segment that contributes nearly half of IBM's revenue and the majority of its profit.
This means → while the market is chasing the quantum narrative, institutional investors are pricing a "picks-and-shovels" business: infrastructure software.
How many firms are betting on the "software stickiness" thesis?
Lenschow's core argument: IBM's infrastructure software is deeply embedded in large, heavily regulated enterprises, creating high customer loyalty that is hard for AI to disrupt.
He is far from alone. Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh went bullish on the same "stickiness" thesis as early as January; Evercore ISI's Amit Daryanani reiterated a similar view the following month; Citi's Fatima Boolani noted in April that IBM's software and hardware sit at "the most critical nodes of the world's largest and most complex IT infrastructure."
In plain terms = four firms independently converge on the same logic — the bigger and more regulated the client, the harder it is to rip out IBM's software, and that stickiness is the real value.
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