ICC: Hormuz Blockade Could Cause Fertilizer Shortage, Food Prices May Surge 80%
nashnova research
ICC Secretary General John Denton warns that the Hormuz Strait blockade has cut global available fertilizer capacity by nearly 40%; if the situation persists, staple food prices could rise as much as 80% — a crisis far more damaging than the oil-price headlines suggest.
What does a shipping strait have to do with food?
Roughly one-third of the world's fertilizer cargo passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the blockade began, available capacity has dropped nearly 40% — equivalent to 2.7 million tonnes removed from the market.
This means → fertilizer is the fuel behind food production; cut the fertilizer, and crop yields fall almost by definition.
In plain terms = everyone is watching oil prices, but Denton argues the real killer is the fertilizer shortage — "The truly lethal story … is the fertilizer story."
How high could food prices go — and who gets hit first?
Denton warns that if the situation does not improve, staple food prices could rise by up to 80%.
Developing countries and emerging economies will bear the brunt first. The Philippines imports roughly 90% of its fertilizer, making it one of the most exposed.
This means → an 80% price surge is not spread evenly — the higher a country's import dependence, the faster and harder the impact lands.
What other risks are piling on top?
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt Black Sea shipping — another major route for fertilizer and grain.
El Niño is expected to damage harvests across multiple regions and push consumer-level inflation higher.
This reflects a picture where food security faces not a single shock but a triple stack: supply-chain fracture + climate-driven crop losses + geopolitical conflict.
Does the UN have a solution — and why is it stalled?
Denton also sits on the UN Hormuz Strait Working Group. In July this year the group proposed a mechanism to temporarily place strait transit rights under the UN Secretary-General's authority, with monitoring, inspection, maritime insurance, and safe-passage protocols.
The mechanism has won support from multiple UN member states, including Southeast Asian nations.
But Denton concedes it is frozen by the U.S.–Iran political deadlock — "The U.S. and Iran have to reach a political agreement. Right now … they are not in a position politically to reach any arrangement." In plain terms = the plan exists; it is stuck because the two principals cannot talk.
What is the key question from here?
It comes down to one thing: will the food crisis arrive before a diplomatic breakthrough?
Every additional month of lost fertilizer capacity means a smaller harvest next season. This means → the clock is not in diplomats' hands — it is in the crop cycle's hands.
This reflects a brutal mismatch: geopolitical negotiation and agricultural production run on fundamentally different timelines.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。