IDC Predicts Apple's Foldable iPhone to Ship Over 10 Million Units in First Year
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IDC predicts Apple's first foldable iPhone will ship over 10 million units in its debut year at a $2,500 price point, while the broader smartphone market faces a record 16.7% decline — making foldables a critical high-margin battleground in a shrinking industry.
What does the device look like, and what will it cost?
Expected to launch in September this year, roughly passport-sized when folded and small-tablet-sized when open.
Priced at approximately $2,500, aimed squarely at the ultra-premium segment.
IDC senior research director Nabila Popal: "Despite the $2,500 price tag, I expect this passport-form Apple foldable to be a broad success. They will line up to buy it."
What do 10 million units in year one actually mean?
IDC projects Apple's foldable iPhone will exceed 10 million units in its first year.
This means → Apple alone could pull the entire foldable market out of its downward trajectory.
With Apple's entry, the foldable market is expected to grow 12.6% this year and accelerate to 18% next year; by 2027, Apple could hold 40% of global foldable shipments.
In plain terms = Samsung pioneered foldables roughly seven years ago, but the category stayed niche. Apple entering could capture nearly half the market almost immediately.
Why is the broader smartphone market getting worse?
IDC has cut its overall smartphone forecast: global shipments are now expected to fall 16.7% this year — a record decline.
The core driver is rising prices for memory chips and other components. IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo: "The components needed to power AI overlap heavily with those already in short supply. The cost is being passed directly to retail prices."
This means → the AI boom is competing with smartphones for the same parts supply. The era of cheap smartphones is over.
What problem does Apple's foldable strategy solve?
Foldables remain a small fraction of the 1-billion-plus-unit smartphone market, but their high-premium nature makes them a disproportionate source of vendor profit.
This reflects a structural shift: when the overall market shrinks, the growth logic moves from "sell more" to "sell pricier."
Whether Apple can use foldables to achieve a structural breakthrough amid a declining market will be the key test of its foldable strategy.
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