IEA Cuts Russia Oil Output Forecast, Citing Ukrainian Attacks as Key Factor
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The IEA cut Russia's oil supply forecasts by 85,000 b/d this year and 150,000 b/d next year, citing sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and transport infrastructure; damaged refining capacity has paradoxically pushed crude exports to record highs, but domestic fuel shortages forced Moscow this week to ban diesel exports.
How much did the IEA cut?
Russia's projected output: 8.9 million b/d in 2026, 8.8 million b/d in 2027 — both below 2025's 9.2 million b/d.
The cuts: 85,000 b/d for this year, 150,000 b/d for next year. Forecast-period average: 8.8 million b/d.
This means → the IEA sees Russia's capacity damage as structural, not temporary — deepening year on year.
Why is output still sliding?
Ukrainian drones continue to hit refineries, storage tanks, and transport infrastructure — multiple links in the production chain are impaired.
June crude output reached 8.86 million b/d, up 120,000 b/d from May but still roughly 900,000 b/d below Russia's OPEC+ quota.
In plain terms = output can bounce month to month, but Russia cannot even fill the quota it agreed to — the gap is nearly a tenth.
Refineries are bombed — so why are crude exports rising?
Less refining capacity means crude that can't be processed gets sold raw — June crude exports hit 5.8 million b/d, up 620,000 b/d from May.
Refined-product exports moved the opposite way: down 230,000 b/d to 1.91 million b/d.
This reflects a seesaw: refining shrinks → crude exports rise passively → refined-product supply falls → domestic fuel pressure builds.
What do the record port numbers tell us?
Russia's western ports posted record-high export volumes in June; July is expected at the same level.
Three ports — Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic, Novorossiysk on the Black Sea — together shipped close to 3 million b/d.
This means → Russia is pushing unrefined crude out through western ports as fast as it can; global crude supply will not tighten immediately on the forecast cut alone.
How bad is the domestic fuel crunch?
Moscow this week banned diesel exports and imposed restrictions on overseas sales of gasoline and jet fuel.
In plain terms = refineries hit → not enough fuel produced → domestic gas stations run short → the government shuts the export tap to keep supply at home.
The next focal point: if refining capacity keeps deteriorating, Russia may be forced to tighten export curbs further — reshaping the global refined-product supply picture as well.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.