IEA Warning: Oil Market Could Enter a 'Danger Zone' in July-August

The International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, stated on Thursday that as the peak demand for fuel draws near this summer, coupled with the continuous disruption of Middle Eastern oil exports and the accelerated depletion of global inventory, the oil market may fall into a "dangerous zone" in July and August.

Birol pointed out that the global oil market was in a state of oversupply when the Iran war broke out, which cushioned the initial impact to some extent. However, as inventory continues to deplete, this buffer space is narrowing. Previous data from Goldman Sachs showed that global oil inventory has been declining at a record pace of 8.7 million barrels per day since May.

At present, the export volume of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is still only 5% of its normal level. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company stated that even if the bypass pipeline is completed, it will take at least four months for the oil flow through Hormuz to recover to 80% of pre-war levels. As the peak demand season for summer approaches, whether the supply and demand gap can be narrowed before then remains the most critical point of market observation."