IMF and OECD Warn: AI May Widen the Gap Between Rich and Poor Nations
nashnova research
IMF and OECD officials warn that while AI could add up to 0.5 percentage points to global growth annually, gaps in power supply, digital infrastructure, and skills training risk leaving poorer nations and younger workers behind.
How much growth can AI actually deliver — and how far off is reality?
The IMF estimates AI could add up to 0.5 percentage points per year to global growth in the medium term, if deployed effectively.
But IMF deputy director Era Dabla-Norris was blunt: "So far, the hard evidence on aggregate productivity is well short of that."
This means → 0.5% is a ceiling, not a baseline. Most economies are nowhere near it yet.
Are businesses actually using AI? Where is the bottleneck?
OECD chief economist Stefano Scarpetta noted that AI adoption is far ahead on the consumer side but still limited in core business functions.
His words: "There is a huge gap between exposure and actual use."
In plain terms = many firms know AI exists and feel exposed to it, but few have woven it into daily operations.
The OECD estimates AI could boost member-country productivity growth by 0.4% to 1.2% per year — that wide range itself signals how uneven adoption really is.
Who is most likely to be left behind?
The IMF estimates roughly 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI.
Dabla-Norris flagged a specific risk: young and entry-level workers are most vulnerable — AI is likeliest to automate the very tasks juniors use to build experience.
This means → the danger is not just job loss. It is that young workers may lose the runway to learn on the job in the first place.
Are layoff signals already showing up?
Barclays plans to cut roughly 5,000 jobs this year, citing AI and other technology as part of its cost-reduction drive.
eBay reportedly plans to cut 9% of its workforce; Qualcomm is also expected to carry out performance-driven layoffs globally.
This reflects a shift: AI's impact on employment is no longer just a forecast — major employers are already restructuring under the banner of efficiency.
Massive AI infrastructure spending — will the returns be enough?
Large-scale AI infrastructure investment has helped push global equity markets to repeated new highs.
The core question remains: with borrowing costs rising, can these enormous outlays generate returns large enough to cover the bill?
In plain terms = the stock market has priced in the promise, but profits have not caught up. If AI productivity gains keep lagging, someone will be left holding the tab.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。