IMF: Current Oil Prices Only About 3% Above April Baseline Forecast
Miles Bennett
The IMF says oil prices sit just 3% above its April forecast baseline, but volatile spot prices, declining global reserves, and an unresolved Strait of Hormuz make the baseline's survival an open question.
A 3% gap — so why won't the IMF call it safe?
Brent crude for August delivery traded at $94.79/barrel, versus the April baseline assumption of $82.22/barrel — a modest gap on paper.
But IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack stopped short of saying the baseline will hold. She stressed that oil prices depend on how long the war lasts and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
This means → 3% is a snapshot, not a verdict. The IMF itself is not confident the number holds through its July update.
Spot above futures — what does that tell us?
August Brent spot: $94.79. December futures: $86.18. Spot is trading well above the far-month contract.
In plain terms = the market is paying a premium for oil available *right now*, a sign that short-term supply is tight and inventories are being drawn down.
The IMF's forecasts are built on futures prices, not spot. The wider the spot-futures gap, the shakier the forecast's foundation becomes.
How close is the "adverse scenario"?
Kozack and other IMF officials have already noted that the global economy is drifting toward the IMF's "adverse scenario" — under which 2026 growth drops from the baseline 3.1% to 2.5%.
This reflects a shift: the drag from ongoing conflict on global growth expectations is no longer hypothetical — it is a trajectory the IMF is actively assessing.
The IMF's next growth-forecast update comes in July and will factor in the spot-futures spread. That update will be the key moment for judging whether the baseline needs a downward revision.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.