"In Chaotic Times" Sharply Downward, Why Has Gold Become the Weakest Asset?
📉 Decline Overview
Early 2026 broke through the historical high $5,000+
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Continuous decline after the outbreak of the Iranian war
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Current price $4,587
Cumulative decline Approximately -11%
In 2025, gold's annual increase reached 65%, and now it has plummeted in the "turmoil" – this is the real paradox worth questioning.
🔑 Why the decline? An Intuitively Unconventional Chain
On the surface, Middle East war = safe-haven demand = gold price increase.
But the actual chain of transmission is as follows:
Outbreak of Iranian war
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Strait of Hormuz blockade → Oil price skyrockets to $110+
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Reignition of inflation expectations (core PCE rises to 4.1% year-on-year)
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Fed rate cut expectations delayed or even disappear
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Real interest rates remain high
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Gold (zero-interest asset) loses appeal
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Continuous decline
Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen:
"Gold is falling, not due to long-term fundamental deterioration, but because the Iranian war has abruptly reversed the macro background."
📊 Triple Pressure Superimposed
Source of Pressure | Manifestation |
|---|---|
🔴 Collapse of interest rate cut expectations | The probability of the Fed "zero rate cuts" for the whole year has soared to 47% |
🔴 High real interest rates | The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to 4.35%, increasing the opportunity cost of gold |
🔴 Profit-taking + De-leveraging | Both the January and March declines were accompanied by a significant outflow of ETF funds |
🤔 Why is the "Safe-Haven Logic" Ineffective?
It's not ineffective; it is overpowered by a stronger force.
Gold is facing two contradictory signals at the same time:
✅ Geopolitical risks rise → Should buy gold
❌ Oil price drives up inflation → Rate cuts further away → Higher real interest rates → Sell gold
The latter is currently gaining the upper hand. This means that the pricing framework for gold has shifted back from "de-dollarization/safe-haven" to the more traditional **"real interest rate" logic**.
💡 What Can Stop Gold from Falling and Bounce Back?
Saxo Bank analysts gave the most direct answer:
"Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a drop in oil prices are the biggest catalysts for gold's short-term upside."
Logic loop:
The U.S. and Iran cease hostilities → Strait reopens → Oil prices retreat
→ Inflationary pressure eases → Interest rate cut expectations return
→ Real interest rates fall → Gold rebounds
📐 Technical Reference
Key Position | Price 市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。 |
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