India's Russian Crude Imports Expected to Hit Record in June, Accounting for Nearly 50% of Total Imports
Alina Collins
India's Russian crude arrivals are forecast to reach 2.55 million barrels per day in June — a record — lifting Russia's share to nearly half of all imports; with the Iran conflict disrupting Middle East supply and a U.S. sanctions waiver now expired, the durability of this shift is the biggest open question.
What does 2.55 million barrels per day mean?
Kpler data shows India's Russian crude arrivals in June are set to hit 2.55 mb/d, up sharply from 2.13 mb/d in May and a new all-time high.
Russia's share of India's total June imports of 5.29 mb/d will approach 50%; in the three months before the Iran conflict erupted on February 28, that share was just 23%.
This means → in roughly four months, India's reliance on Russian crude doubled — a structural shift, not a marginal adjustment.
Why did India suddenly ramp up Russian crude purchases?
The direct trigger: Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz tightened Middle East supply; the Trump administration responded by waiving sanctions on Russian crude purchases, giving India a green light.
India remains cautious on Middle East supply — June imports from Saudi Arabia are just 349,000 b/d, down more than half from the pre-conflict three-month average of 832,000 b/d.
In plain terms = when the Middle East route got disrupted, India redirected bulk orders to Russia — available, competitively priced, and ready to deliver.
The sanctions waiver has expired — what happens next?
The U.S. waiver on Russian crude sanctions expired on June 17; the Treasury Department did not renew it.
In theory, India should now cut Russian crude imports again. In practice, the outcome hinges on two things: New Delhi's confidence in resuming Middle East purchases and whether Washington re-engages sanctions enforcement.
This means → the Trump administration's next move is the single biggest variable determining whether India can sustain its current procurement structure.
It's not just oil — is Russian coal also gaining ground in India?
India's Russian coal imports in June are projected at 3.16 million tonnes, up 51% from the pre-conflict three-month average, near a record high.
Russia is set to overtake Australia in June and become India's second-largest coal supplier.
For metallurgical coal — the key raw material for steelmaking — India imported 2.02 million tonnes from Russia in May, the second-highest on record.
Why is India's appetite for met-coal imports so large?
India's steel output currently runs at roughly 168 million tonnes per year and is projected to reach 400 million tonnes by 2035; about 25 million tonnes of new capacity is coming online this year alone.
India's domestic met-coal reserves are limited and low-quality, making import dependence effectively irreversible.
This reflects a long-term dynamic: competition among diversified suppliers — Russia, Australia, and others — for India's met-coal market will persist for years, not just the current cycle.
Has Russia's position in India's energy map fundamentally changed?
Across crude oil and coal, Russia's role in India's energy supply chain has been materially strengthened by this conflict.
But the sustainability of the crude-oil leg depends heavily on whether Washington re-engages sanctions enforcement — the waiver has lapsed, and the window is narrowing.
In plain terms = Russia has secured a firm foothold in India's energy market, but how long it keeps that foothold is Washington's call.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.