Innolight: No Widespread Order Cuts from Customers, Some 1.6T Demand Increasing, Nomura Price Cut Rumors Unfounded
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Innolight (中际旭创, 300308) responded on Nov 3 to order-cut rumors: most clients have not reduced orders, with some raising 1.6T demand; a circulating Nomura report citing a ¥330 target was fabricated — Nomura's actual rating is Buy at ¥1,196.
What triggered the order-cut scare?
Optical-module stocks have been under pressure, with rumors of overseas clients slashing orders spreading across the sector. Innolight released an investor-relations record that evening to respond directly.
The company stated: most clients have not revised down demand or orders. A few are adjusting product mix, but some have actually increased 1.6T requirements.
This means → the market amplified isolated adjustments into a narrative of "broad-based cuts," yet Innolight says aggregate demand remains within prior forecasts.
Are 2027 orders secure?
Most 2027 orders already cover the full year. Data-center clients are pulling inventory at a normal pace, with no sign of slowdown.
Overall optical-module supply remains tight. The company has not seen products sitting in abnormal inventory after production.
In plain terms = the issue is not "can't sell" — it's "still not enough to sell." Supply tightness itself is evidence of strong demand.
How far ahead can we see into 2028?
Innolight disclosed that at least one key client has given explicit 2028 demand guidance, and that guidance is strong. Other clients' plans are still being collected.
On pricing, 800G and 1.6T annual price declines for 2027 are limited; some products have seen no reduction at all.
This means → neither volume nor pricing shows deterioration signals. The company remains optimistic on 2028 sector conditions.
Where do NPO and XPO stand?
NPO — near-package optics, a next-generation design that brings optical interconnects closer to the chip — is expected to begin ramping in H2 2027, with larger-scale demand in 2028.
Early-stage ramp requires yield climbs across manufacturing, higher-power CW laser sources, and electrical chips — a normal process for new-product mass production.
For XPO, the company demonstrated its solution at OFC 2026 and will send samples for client testing; demand is expected to materialize in 2027.
Is the Nomura ¥330 target price real or fake?
During trading on Nov 3, a screenshot labeled as a Nomura report — claiming a target-price cut to ¥330 — circulated in investor communities and moved the stock.
Nomura responded: "The claim is not true." Jiemian News verified that the analyst name, report number, and earnings model cited in the screenshot match no official record.
Nomura's latest report maintains a Buy rating, with an A-share target of ¥1,196 and an H-share target of HK$1,387 — nearly four times the rumored figure.
How will the gap between rumor and reality be settled?
Management summarized: 2027 sector demand remains solid, cycle conditions are very strong, and no broad-based order cuts have occurred.
The company urged investors to assess demand and valuation rationally.
This reflects management's attempt to break the rumor chain with one comprehensive response — but the ultimate proof will come from quarterly shipment data, not a single disclosure.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。