Institution: Global Memory Market Faces Sharp Price Correction Risk in H2 2027
Claire Weston
Counterpoint expects the global memory market to grow through H1 2027, topping KRW 2,100 trillion, but warns that a surge in new fab capacity could trigger a sharp price correction starting in the second half.
What is driving this memory boom?
AI infrastructure spending is the core variable — server memory demand is surging, and Counterpoint projects server revenue will expand to 57% of the global memory market.
This means → the memory industry's revenue mix is tilting decisively toward servers. AI compute build-out is now the single biggest driver of memory demand.
The firm expects growth to last at least through H1 2027, with the full-year market potentially exceeding KRW 2,100 trillion.
When does the risk window open?
Counterpoint flags an explicit warning: from H2 2027 onward, once new fab expansion plans become clearly visible, a rapid release of supply could pressure prices.
In plain terms = everyone is racing to add capacity now, but new fabs take time to come online. Once they do — likely around late 2027 — supply could flood the market faster than demand absorbs it.
The report states: "To establish current growth as structural change rather than a cyclical upturn, more refined supply-demand management is required."
How will memory makers compete for share?
Counterpoint identifies three core variables: long-term supply agreements to lock in stable capacity, customized HBM strategies, and accelerated next-generation process migration.
This means → simply expanding capacity is no longer enough. Firms that secure major customers, differentiate their products, and reach volume production on new nodes first will hold the strongest position in the next shakeout.
This reflects a market shifting from a sell-everything-you-make phase to one where managing the pace of supply and demand becomes the real competitive edge.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.