Intensifying Rumors of Overseas Restrictions on Optical Modules and PCBs; Institutions See Limited Short-Term Impact
nashnova research
Since October, a string of policy rumors has rattled China's optical-module and PCB sectors, but a clause-by-clause check shows the actual restrictions are far narrower than the market feared — brokers maintain the near-term impact is limited.
What did that Morgan Stanley note actually say?
The claim circulating in the market: U.S.-origin content in a 3.2T optical module's bill of materials could be as high as 65%, implying a supply cutoff risk for Chinese makers.
Eoptolink (东山精密) responded on October 8 — the ratio requirement is an unofficial market rumor, not a formally enacted FCC policy.
The company also disclosed that optical chips account for no more than 10% of its total module material cost. This means → even if optical chips were restricted, the hit to total cost would be far smaller than the market imagines.
What has the FCC actually banned — and what hasn't it?
The preliminary agenda for the FCC's October 29 open meeting lists seven items. None targets Chinese optical modules.
FCC Rule 26-50, effective October 13, extends equipment-authorization review to certain logic-bearing hardware components — but it applies only to new authorization applications and does not retroactively affect previously authorized equipment.
An Aijian Securities report notes that, as of October 8, Chinese-made optical modules have not been listed as a standalone product category on the FCC's controlled list. In plain terms = existing shipments are unaffected, and the new rule's scope is much narrower than the rumors suggested.
Does the "full PCB removal" claim hold up?
The market rumor says "the U.S. is requiring its supply chain to completely remove Chinese PCBs." The legal text tells a different story: restrictions apply only to U.S. Department of Defense procurement of specific PCBs (10 U.S.C. § 4873), effective January 1, 2027.
Restricted products mainly involve mission-critical non-commercial items and defense-security systems — not a blanket requirement for commercial AI servers or data centers to stop buying Chinese PCBs.
A September 11 statement from the U.S. Printed Circuit Board Association confirms this — the group is pushing defense supply-chain localization, not a new ban across all commercial AI supply chains.
How big is the 337 investigation risk for Luxshare?
The U.S. International Trade Commission launched a Section 337 investigation on October 9 (No. 337-TA-1526) over vertical power-delivery system patents. Respondents include Luxshare Precision (立讯精密), Foxconn Industrial Internet (工业富联) affiliates, Delta Electronics, and Infineon, among others.
Luxshare announced on October 10 that the products at issue are still in customer validation and have not entered mass production; a preliminary assessment sees no material adverse impact on current operations.
This means → the investigation has only just been docketed. It must still go through evidence review, hearings, and a ruling — launching an investigation is not the same as reaching a judgment.
What are the demand-side numbers saying?
LightCounting has raised its 2026 Ethernet optical-module revenue growth forecast from 73% to 120%.
Seven of the world's top ten optical-module makers are Chinese; Chinese vendors hold roughly 70% of 800G and 1.6T high-speed module shipments.
Huatai Securities maintains its view that restrictions are "hard to implement near-term and the impact remains manageable." Wanlian Securities notes that North American AI data centers depend on leading Chinese vendors' R&D capability, yield control, and volume delivery. In plain terms = buyers cannot find substitute suppliers in the short run — that dependency is the Chinese makers' strongest moat.
Valuations are no longer cheap — where is the risk?
As of October 9, the Shenwan telecom sector's trailing P/E stands at 29.72×, above the 2023–2025 historical average of 22.01×.
Guotai Junan chief strategist Fang Yi notes that PCB, CPO, and MLCC names benefit directly from overseas AI capex — order validation is fast and the volume-price logic is clear.
Yet even if industry demand keeps growing, crowded positioning and shifts in risk appetite can still drive stock prices away from fundamentals for stretches. This reflects a sector whose main risk is no longer policy itself, but sentiment swings at elevated valuations.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。