International Oil Prices Fall for Second Consecutive Week as Trump Insists on Iran Blockade
nashnova research
Brent crude has dropped nearly 18% over two weeks to $95.41 a barrel after Trump signalled he will maintain Iran's oil blockade without seeking a deal, draining the supply-disruption premium and leaving the Strait of Hormuz as the key swing variable.
How far have prices fallen — and how fast?
Brent fell about 2.4% this week to $95.41 a barrel; WTI dropped roughly 2.5% to $88.52.
The prior week was far steeper — Brent plunged 16%, WTI lost 13%. The two-week combined decline is significant.
This means → oil did not drift lower gradually; it crashed first, then ground lower — the market is rapidly repricing Middle East risk.
Why the drop — what did Trump say?
Trump posted on Truth Social that ending the US–Iran conflict does not require a deal with Iran, implying the oil-export blockade and trade sanctions will stay in place.
In plain terms = the blockade continues, but it will not escalate into a full-scale war — so the "all-out conflict causes supply shutdown" scenario the market had feared is now seen as less likely.
This reflects the fact that a substantial portion of oil's recent highs was fear premium, not a real supply-demand gap.
Why did the US inventory data make things worse?
EIA data showed US commercial crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels for the week ending November 6.
Analysts had expected a draw of 1.1 million barrels — the actual result went the opposite direction, a gap of nearly 5.8 million barrels.
This means → weak refined-product demand combined with a jump in imports left supply not just un-tightened but actively building — more ammunition for the bears.
Has the geopolitical risk really disappeared?
Iran's military said four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz; Reuters has not independently verified the claim.
Yemen's Houthi forces claimed on the same day to have attacked a Saudi pipeline pump station, a petroleum facility in the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and a Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh.
In plain terms = small-scale incidents keep happening, but the market's read is that under a US blockade-without-war posture, the probability of a major escalation is limited — so prices are growing numb to each new headline.
What to watch next?
Chris Brankin, global advisor at Melbourne-based broker MiTrade, said oil pricing is now "pretty well calibrated" but traders lack a clear directional signal and are closely tracking the Middle East.
Whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open is the key variable for where oil goes next — roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes through it. [unverified]
This means → oil may trade sideways around current levels in the near term; only a material shipping disruption in the strait would trigger a fresh spike.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。