IPO Expectations for OpenAI and Anthropic Heat Up This Year as Three ETFs Offer Early Exposure
Miles Bennett
OpenAI and Anthropic have both confidentially filed S-1s, putting year-end IPOs in play; retail investors face structural barriers to getting shares at the offer price, but three ETFs provide exposure ranging from direct private equity to full daily liquidity — the open question is whether their entry cost holds up once IPO valuations land.
Both companies racing to IPO — what does that signal?
OpenAI and Anthropic have each filed a confidential S-1 registration statement — the required IPO prospectus — with the SEC, clearing the path for listings this year.
They are currently the two most valuable private companies in the world. A simultaneous push to go public sends a clear message: the top AI players see this as the monetization window.
This means → growth-oriented capital faces a choice now: wait for IPO day and compete for shares, or find an alternative entry point early.
Why is it so hard for retail investors to get the offer price?
IPO allocation has a structural gatekeep: during bookbuilding — the phase where underwriters collect bids from institutions and set the offer price — hedge funds, mutual funds, and endowments get priority.
Retail investors typically cannot buy until the stock begins trading on the exchange, by which time a supply-demand imbalance has often pushed the price well above the offer.
In plain terms = think of a sold-out concert where institutions get reserved tickets and retail buys whatever is left at the door — rarely at face value.
AGIX — how does one ETF hold Anthropic private equity directly?
The KraneShares Public-Private AI & Tech ETF (ticker: AGIX) holds Anthropic private equity directly, alongside public shares in Alphabet and Amazon — both strategic investors in Anthropic — creating multi-layered exposure.
The fund trades on Nasdaq with daily liquidity. Its expense ratio is 0.99%, above most ETFs.
This means → investors get access to a private asset class normally reserved for qualified purchasers, inside a vehicle they can buy and sell any trading day; the trade-off is a near-1% annual fee.
ARKVX — betting on both OpenAI and Anthropic, at what cost?
Ark Venture Fund (ticker: ARKVX), managed by Cathie Wood, carries OpenAI at 8.5% weight and Anthropic at 6.4%, plus other private ventures such as Kalshi and Figure AI.
It operates as an interval fund — a closed-end structure that offers limited redemption windows on a set schedule; if redemption requests exceed available liquidity, payouts may be prorated. Minimum investment is $500.
In plain terms = the highest concentration on both AI leaders, but getting money in is easier than getting it out — you may have to wait in line.
ARKK — choosing daily liquidity, what is the trade-off?
Ark Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) is Wood's flagship listed ETF, holding OpenAI private equity alongside public growth stocks in AI, genomics, fintech, and autonomous driving.
Compared with ARKVX, ARKK is more diversified but offers full daily liquidity with no redemption restrictions.
This means → the best liquidity of the three, but AI private-equity concentration is diluted — suited to investors who want AI-IPO upside as a portfolio add-on, not a concentrated bet.
What is the real open question for early positioning?
The three products span a spectrum: pure private-equity exposure (AGIX), high-concentration public-private blend (ARKVX), and liquidity-first (ARKK) — covering different risk appetites.
The unresolved question: once OpenAI and Anthropic IPO valuations are set, will the entry cost embedded in these early positions provide a sufficient margin of safety?
In plain terms = whether buying now is cheap enough only becomes clear the day the IPO prices.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.