Iran advances legislation to control the Strait of Hormuz, military claims it could double oil revenue

On May 13th, local time, the chairman of Iran's Parliament Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, Aziz, stated that Iran hopes to leverage the geographical advantage of the Strait of Hormuz into a lever for strengthening national power through "intelligent management." He disclosed that the management plan has been reviewed within the committee and submitted to the Iranian Parliament awaiting final approval.

On the same day, the spokesman of the Iranian military, Akraminia, further stated that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz will bring the country "significant" economic revenue, "possibly doubling oil income," and strengthen Iran's influence on the international stage. He also revealed that the western part of the Strait is controlled by the Revolutionary Guard Navy, while the eastern part is the responsibility of Iran's regular navy. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi also officially confirmed that as a coastal state of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is formulating legislation on strait management arrangements in accordance with international law.

Iran has significantly tightened control over the Strait since the beginning of the war against Iran by the US and Israel in February this year and has established a transit permit and charging system for passing vessels. According to the Deputy Speaker of Iran, Hachibabayi, Tehran has already received the first income from the Strait's passage fees. Reuters, citing informed sources, said that Iraq and Pakistan have signed energy transport agreements with Iran, and other countries are also negotiating similar arrangements, a trend that may gradually normalize Iran's control over the Strait.

At the same time, US-Iranian negotiations have reached an impasse. Trump said on May 13th, before going to the summit in China, that he did not believe the assistance of China was needed to solve the Iranian problem, "We will win, either by peaceful means or otherwise." The US demands that Iran end its nuclear program and open up control of the Strait, while Iran demands war compensation and an end to US blockades, Trump dismissed Iran's conditions as "garbage." Since the fragile ceasefire came into effect on April 8th, no substantive progress has been made between the two sides.

The Executive Director of the IEA, Birol, warned in an interview with The New York Times on May 13th, "Today, the most important single solution to this problem is to fully and unconditionally reopen the Strait of Hormuz," but he admitted, "we are still far from this situation." IEA data shows that the oil production of oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf has decreased by more than 14 million barrels/day compared to pre-war levels, and global stocks are being consumed at a record-breaking rate. Iran's acceleration in promoting Strait management legislation is widely interpreted by the outside world as Tehran's intention to institutionalize control over the Strait and use it as a long-term bargaining chip in negotiations.