Iran Says $12 Billion in Frozen Funds to Be Unfrozen in Two Tranches
Miles Bennett
Iran says $12 billion in frozen funds will be unlocked in two tranches, while Secretary of State Rubio flies to the Gulf to reassure allies — the interim US-Iran deal is moving from paper to practice, but the two sides still describe what they agreed to very differently.
How does the $12 billion get unlocked?
Iran's deputy foreign minister Gharibabadi, citing semi-official Mehr news agency, said roughly $12 billion in frozen funds will be released in two tranches of $6 billion each.
Washington has not publicly confirmed the figure. This means → the number is Iran's unilateral claim for now; the final amount could still shift.
Vice President Vance said Iran will use the money to buy American soybeans, wheat, and corn. In plain terms = the US is framing the cash as "grocery money," not a blank check — that framing is aimed squarely at domestic hawks.
Who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
Vance said the negotiating team has "established a mechanism" to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and transit volumes have already started to recover.
But Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf, after leaving Switzerland, stated flatly: the strait "will never return to its pre-war state," and Iran will manage the waterway under international law.
This means → the two sides are telling completely different stories about the same strait — the US says "free passage restored," Iran says "we're in charge." Until that gap closes, oil prices stay unsettled.
How far does sanctions relief actually go?
Beyond the fund release, Washington has promised to waive sanctions on Iranian oil exports and plans to help set up a $300 billion post-war reconstruction fund for Iran.
This reflects a US offer that goes far beyond unfreezing existing cash — oil-sanctions waivers plus a reconstruction fund point toward a systemic economic reopening for Iran.
Iranian hawks have already pushed back, warning that Tehran will use the inflows to rebuild military capacity and keep funding Hezbollah. In plain terms = the critics' logic is straightforward: once money flows in, no one can control where it goes.
Why hasn't the oil price fallen further?
Brent crude slipped 0.6% Tuesday to below $78 a barrel, well off the late-April peak of roughly $125.
Yet it remains above pre-war levels. This means → the market is not pricing in "deal signed" — it is pricing in "months before Hormuz oil-and-gas flows fully normalize."
In plain terms = shipowners and traders are coming back, but they are not fully confident yet — the risk premium in oil is fading slowly, not all at once.
What are the unresolved questions?
At the technical talks in Switzerland, the US and Iran agreed to set up working groups on sanctions removal and uranium-enrichment limits; lower-level officials will keep negotiating this week.
But the two sides still frame what has been agreed very differently: the White House needs to placate domestic hawks, while Iran casts the deal as "Washington's concession."
Israel's UN ambassador Danon said Israel "has the ability to strike Hezbollah but is in no rush to stay in Lebanon." This reflects that the trajectory of the Israel-Lebanon front remains the key variable for whether the US-Iran framework holds — Rubio's Gulf trip is about reassuring security allies, not just economic ones.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.