Iran War Drags on Inflation: Trump's Economic Approval Rating Falls to Term Low
N.R. Finch
The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing up fuel and food prices, and Trump's economic approval has sunk to a two-term low — 73% of voters disapprove of his handling of living costs — piling pressure ahead of the midterms.
How far has approval fallen?
Reuters/Ipsos: 73% of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of living costs, up from just 44% at inauguration. This means → in under six months, the economy flipped from his strongest shield to his heaviest drag.
The Economist/YouGov puts his overall approval at 34%, an all-time low; for two straight weeks, nearly two-thirds say the economy is getting worse.
The Gallup economic confidence index has also dropped to its lowest point this term, with pessimism spreading into Republican and independent voters.
How bad are the inflation numbers?
April CPI rose to 3.8% year-on-year; grocery prices posted their largest increase in nearly four years. The Iran war has disrupted fertilizer supply, and further price pressures are still building.
Data due Wednesday is expected to show inflation back above 4% for the first time since spring 2023.
Inflation-adjusted hourly wages fell for the first time in three years; the personal savings rate has dropped to a multi-year low. In plain terms = prices are climbing, real pay is shrinking, and household budgets are getting squeezed.
The White House says "it'll be fine once the war ends" — is that realistic?
White House spokesperson Kush Desai calls the situation a "temporary disruption," predicting oil prices will fall and inflation will cool once Hormuz reopens.
RSM US chief economist Joseph Brusuelas pushes back: damage to oil facilities and the risk of renewed conflict will prevent energy prices from snapping back on their own. This means → even a ceasefire may not deliver the quick price relief the White House expects.
He warns that the war's economic drag will weigh on middle-class and working-family spending through the midterm elections.
How serious is the midterm political risk?
Former acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney put it bluntly: "If gas is still above $4 a gallon around Labor Day, everyone knows what that means for the party in power — big trouble."
Republicans hold only a slim House majority, and historical patterns typically work against the governing party in midterms; Trump himself has warned he could face impeachment again if Democrats retake the House.
Democrats are equally short on public trust — they just presided over the worst inflation cycle in forty years. This reflects a race where neither party holds a safe card on the economy, but every day oil prices stay elevated, the pressure falls more heavily on the incumbent side.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.