Iran War Leaves Belgium Fully Dependent on Russian LNG in July
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The Middle East war shut down Hormuz Strait shipping, leaving Belgium 100% reliant on Russian LNG in July — total imports fell over 40% year-on-year, stress-testing the EU's own ban.
How did Belgium end up with only one gas supplier?
Bloomberg vessel-tracking data show Belgium imported roughly 400,000 tonnes of LNG in July — all of it from Russia. Every other source dropped to zero.
This means → the war cut off Qatar and other suppliers that ship through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the EU's fifth-largest LNG importer into a single-source position.
Total imports fell more than 40% year-on-year — not because demand shrank, but because available supply collapsed.
Hasn't the EU ban already kicked in?
The EU banned member states from signing short-term LNG contracts with Russia starting April this year, with a full ban planned for next year.
In plain terms = short-term deals are blocked, but long-term contracts and spot windows remain open — the ban is phased, and it is not finished yet.
Last month the EU added a new carve-out: Russian LNG can transit through EU ports to third countries, ostensibly to reduce global shipping risk. This signals that policymakers themselves are hedging against an incomplete ban.
Is Europe actually weaning itself off Russian gas?
German non-profit Urgewald estimates Europe's Russian LNG imports rose 16% year-on-year in H1 2026, totalling €5.96 billion (roughly $6.9 billion).
France, Belgium and Spain were the main buyers. Russia remains the EU's second-largest LNG supplier, behind only the United States.
This means → "de-Russification" is not just stalled — it is running in reverse. The Middle East supply gap pushed European buyers right back to Russian cargoes.
Can stockpiles last through the winter?
European gas storage sits at its lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2009. Winter supply pressure is rising sharply.
Most buyers have delayed winter restocking because prices remain elevated, tightening the supply–demand balance further.
In plain terms = storage is low, prices are high, and buyers are not restocking — stack those three together, and any colder-than-normal winter will expose the gap fast.
Will the full ban land on schedule next year?
EU officials say the timeline is unchanged. But some industry observers are already asking: if the Middle East disruption persists, can a full ban actually be enforced?
The last time Belgium sourced all its LNG from Russia was early 2021 — before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when dependence on Russian gas was considered normal.
This reflects a core contradiction: the EU ban has a timetable, but the alternative supply does not. Whether the ban can actually be enforced is the variable markets will watch most closely.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.