Iran's Oil Exports Fall to Six-Year Low in May; Blockade Could Cut Off Supply to China Entirely
Claire Weston
Iran's crude exports collapsed to roughly 210,000 barrels per day in May — the lowest since late 2019. A U.S. naval blockade plus the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have nearly shut down all export channels in two months, putting China's supply line at risk of total disruption.
How far have exports fallen?
Vortexa puts Iran's May crude-and-condensate average at about 209,000 b/d; Kpler's figure is slightly higher at roughly 260,000 b/d. Different methodologies, same verdict: a six-year low.
For context: April was 1.34 million b/d; March was close to 1.9 million b/d. This means → in just two months, export volumes dropped by nearly 90 percent.
In plain terms = Iran's oil pipeline went from wide open to almost completely shut in eight weeks.
What blocked the pipeline?
Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman identified three converging forces: instability around the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy blockade targeting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports since April 13, and a broad refusal by shipowners, insurers, and counterparties to expose vessels and crew to the current threat environment.
This means → the blockade is not just a military act — it triggered the commercial chain to contract on its own. Without insurance or willing shipowners, tankers simply cannot leave port.
This reflects a deeper dynamic: when security risk is high enough, market participants cut supply faster than the sanctions themselves.
How much oil is stranded at sea?
Kpler data show roughly 147 million barrels of Iranian crude sitting in floating storage (tankers used as at-sea oil tanks), with about 67 million barrels trapped inside the blockade perimeter and unable to move.
FGE NexantECA analyst Iman Nasseri gives a more conservative estimate: about 55 million barrels behind the blockade line.
Total floating storage has fallen from a recent peak of about 190 million barrels in late April, as some tankers completed discharge in China — but no new supply is flowing in to replace them.
How long can China's imports hold?
China, Iran's largest buyer, saw May imports drop to 1.1 million b/d — the lowest since January 2025, per Kpler.
Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi warned: if the blockade lasts another two months, Iran's exportable oil supply to China will be effectively exhausted.
In plain terms = this is not a story of "less supply" — it is a countdown to zero. The window for diplomatic resolution is roughly two months.
What comes next?
That timeline means → whether Iran's oil supply recovers depends on geopolitical developments in the coming weeks, not on the market's ability to self-correct.
Everything the market can do — sourcing alternatives, rerouting cargoes — is already underway. The remaining variable sits at the negotiating table.
This reflects the core nature of the situation: this is not a supply-and-demand problem — it is a political on-off switch.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.