Iran's Revolutionary Guard Warns: Unauthorized Vessels Transiting Strait of Hormuz Will Face Danger
Claire Weston
Iran's IRGC Navy declared Wednesday that any Hormuz Strait transit route not coordinated with Tehran is "unacceptable and dangerous," threatening action against non-compliant vessels. This means → even after last week's US-Iran memorandum, the real shipping risk has not eased.
What exactly did the IRGC say?
The IRGC Navy stated that only Iran-designated shipping lanes are permitted, and all vessels must coordinate via designated communication channels with Iranian forces.
The language was blunt — "navigating outside these routes is extremely dangerous and strictly prohibited"; all ships were warned to stay within the designated corridor.
This means → Iran is positioning itself as the strait's sole traffic controller. Any alternative route is treated as a provocation.
What triggered the warning?
Last Saturday, a key naval information group proposed an alternative shipping corridor — advising shipowners to transit along a southern route through Omani territorial waters with transponders on.
The notice called the southern route "confirmed mine-free and recommended." In plain terms = someone tried to chart a path that bypasses Iran's designated lanes, hugging the Omani side instead.
Iran immediately rejected it. This reflects Tehran's red line on strait control: only routes set by Iran count; proposals from anyone else are void.
Are ships actually getting through?
MarineTraffic data shows weekend transits tripled to 93 crossings compared with the prior period.
That is still well below the pre-conflict norm of 100+ per day — on Tuesday, only 31 commercial and energy vessels completed the passage.
Shipowners are mixing Iranian, Omani, and IMO routing options. MarineTraffic noted that "operators are still proceeding cautiously, not resuming normal transit patterns."
How has Washington responded?
The US Treasury sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority in May, labelling it a tool for "extorting global maritime trade."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington will not tolerate any toll regime on Hormuz and will actively target participants.
This means → despite the memorandum, the US and Iran remain on a collision course over the core question: who controls the strait.
How should markets read what comes next?
RBC Capital Markets global commodity strategist Helima Croft wrote in a Thursday client note: pre-conflict tanker transit volumes may be the foreseeable ceiling.
Her key judgment — "any conflict outcome that leaves Iran retaining operational control and influence over the strait will result in meaningfully lower transit flows."
In plain terms = as long as Iran holds the strait's "on-off switch," volumes cannot return to pre-conflict levels. This judgment is the critical benchmark for markets assessing whether Hormuz can truly normalise.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.