Iron Ore Falls Below $90/Ton, Hitting a Two-Year Low
nashnova research
Iron ore futures fell below $90/ton for the first time in nearly two years, down roughly 15% year-to-date — weak Chinese construction activity and ample global supply are squeezing the price from both sides.
How far has it fallen?
Singapore Exchange iron ore hit an intraday low of $89.75/ton, the first breach of the $90 level in nearly two years.
Year-to-date losses stand at roughly 15%. Dalian iron ore futures fell in tandem; Shanghai steel contracts weakened across the board.
This means → not a one-day flash drop, but a months-long downtrend confirmed across multiple markets.
Why is it falling? What is wrong on the demand side?
The core driver: China's construction activity remains depressed. Crude steel output in the first eight months is the lowest for the period since 2018.
In plain terms = fewer buildings going up → less steel needed → fewer iron ore purchases — the price has no floor to stand on.
Years of property-sector downturn continue to weigh on steel demand, leaving steelmakers with paper-thin margins.
Is the supply side piling on too?
Global iron ore supply remains ample, with new capacity still coming online — including the Simandou mine in Guinea, one of the world's largest undeveloped iron ore deposits.
This means → demand is shrinking while supply keeps expanding — pressure from both ends is the structural reason the decline is accelerating.
Will it keep falling?
Chaos Ternary Futures noted in a research report: "Steelmaker margins remain thin, and hot-metal output still has room to be cut further."
The firm's view: iron ore prices are likely to stay in a range-bound, downward-biased pattern in the near term.
In plain terms = steelmakers can't turn a profit → they keep cutting production → their iron ore purchases are unlikely to rebound, making a near-term price recovery difficult.
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