Israel kicked out of US-Iran talks, Trump says Netanyahu needs to be restrained

The New York Times cited two Israeli defense officials revealing that only a few weeks after attacking Iran on February 28, Israel's situation has undergone a fundamental reversal. At that time, Netanyahu was still sitting beside Trump in the situation room leading the discussion, but now he is almost completely excluded from the decision-making circle of U.S.-Iran negotiations. Israeli officials are forced to piece together the progress of the negotiations through their connections with regional leaders and intelligence surveillance inside Iran.

An American official familiar with Trump's thoughts stated that Trump regards Netanyahu as a war ally, but does not consider him a close partner when negotiating with Iran. More critically, Trump believes that in terms of resolving conflict issues, Netanyahu is "the one who needs to be restrained." This characterization implies that the strategic rift between Washington and Tel Aviv has far exceeded surface disagreements.

On the level of situational signaling, multiple messages show clear contradictions. The spokesman for Iran's Civil Aviation Organization clearly denied on the 23rd that any flight restrictions had been issued recently, stating that the related documents circulating online were "purely false information." Currently, all flights are operating normally nationwide, and the airports in Ahvaz and Mahshahr fully resumed operations that morning. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy stated that in the past 24 hours, 25 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz normally after obtaining permission, and the situation is not out of control.

However, Iran's defense department issued another warning to the U.S. on the same day, stating that if the U.S. does not respect Iran's rights, it will suffer "more failures." In terms of diplomatic mediation, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz arrived in Hangzhou on the 23rd to begin his visit to China. It is widely believed that Pakistan is trying to promote a framework agreement between Iran and the U.S. as soon as possible to create conditions for subsequent negotiations.

The current situation presents the typical characteristics of brinkmanship on the edge of war: military threats and diplomatic mediation go hand in hand, with the truth of information being hard to discern and the market being highly sensitive to any minor changes.