Japanese Trade Official: No One Dares Transit the Strait of Hormuz
N.R. Finch
Japan's foreign trade council chief Okafuji Masahiro says the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a no-go zone for commercial shipping; rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope would push freight costs up over 30% — Japan's Middle East crude imports hit their lowest since 1979 in April as strategic reserves drain fast.
What is actually happening at the Strait of Hormuz?
Okafuji Masahiro, CEO of Itochu and chair of Japan's Foreign Trade Council, said Wednesday: "No one will go there — it's too dangerous."
The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) keeps the strait's threat level at "critical" — raised last week after the US-Iran ceasefire showed signs of collapse.
JMIC warns crews to expect stepped-up interception and surveillance by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, with a risk of vessels being forcibly rerouted to Iranian-controlled lanes.
This means → the strait is not formally blockaded, but the effect is the same — commercial shipowners have already pulled out on their own.
How much does rerouting cost?
Okafuji said diverting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope would raise shipping costs by more than 30%.
In plain terms = the direct Persian Gulf–Asia lane is broken; tankers now sail halfway around Africa, burning more fuel over a longer voyage with higher insurance — costs that ultimately feed into the oil price.
This reflects a direct conversion of renewed regional hostilities from military risk into real-world energy supply-chain cost.
How deep is Japan's energy gap?
Japan previously relied on the Middle East for 95% of its crude imports, all transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
With the strait effectively closed, Japanese refiners have scrambled for alternatives from the US, Azerbaijan, and Latin America.
The government has tapped its largest-ever strategic petroleum reserve release to cover the shortfall.
In April, Japan's crude imports from the Middle East fell to the lowest level on record since 1979.
What is the critical question ahead?
Strategic reserves are being drawn down steadily — this is not an infinite buffer.
The key variable: whether alternative supplies can match the Middle East gap in both scale and cost over the long term.
This means → if replacement sources cannot keep pace with depletion, Japanese and broader Asian refiners face a sustained climb in operating costs, ultimately pushing end-user energy prices higher.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.