JD Countdown to First Quarter Results: Wall Street Bets on Narrowing Losses, Market Awaiting Verification

JD.com will release its Q1 financial report before the US stock market opens on May 12th. What the market cares about the most is not the revenue, but how long the money for food delivery will continue to burn.

Over the past year, JD.com has paid a high price for food delivery. The new business segment recorded a loss of 46.6 billion yuan for the year, with marketing expenses soaring from 48 billion to 84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75%. In exchange, it gained 240 million food delivery users and about 15% market share. However, the full-year Non-GAAP net profit fell from 47.8 billion to 27 billion, a shrinkage of over 40%.

In Q4, JD.com reported a quarterly loss for the first time in more than three years, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 2.7 billion yuan. However, it also showed signs of marginal improvement during the same period. The loss from new businesses was 14.8 billion, which narrowed by about 6% compared to 15.7 billion in Q3. JD.com's CEO, Xu Ran, stated at the performance meeting that the total investment in food delivery is expected to be lower than last year by 2026, but also emphasized that it depends on the competitive situation.

From the institutional expectations, the Q1 revenue is estimated to be between 309.5 billion and 312.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 3%. The adjusted net profit range is 4.6 billion to 5.9 billion yuan, with clear分歧s being much greater than the revenue side. The uncertainty of profit is a direct reflection of the difficulty in predicting the pace of food delivery investment.

Compared to the financial report numbers, the phone call on May 12th may be more critical. What the market wants to hear is whether the annual food delivery budget can be further quantified, whether the 30% market share target has been adjusted due to regulatory changes, and when the synergy between logistics and retail will accelerate. These answers will determine whether JD.com is categorized as "efficiency improvement" or "continuous bleeding".

Recently, Wall Street has been leaning towards optimism. On April 14th, Barclays, JPMorgan Chase, and HSBC all released bullish research reports on the same day. The logic is focused on two lines: the growth of high-margin businesses such as daily necessities and platform services exceeded expectations in Q1; the trend of narrowing food delivery losses is established, coupled with regulatory signals for rational competition.

Citing QuestMobile data, HSBC said that JD.com's monthly active users grew by 13% year-on-year in Q1, faster than competitors' 2-3%. The daily active ratio increased by about 2 percentage points year-on-year. HSBC estimates that the annual food delivery loss will narrow from about 36 billion last year to about 25 billion.

The core retail is also worth paying attention to. JD Retail's operating profit margin rose to 4.6% in 2025, a historical high. However, in Q4, the category of electronic products fell by 12% year-on-year, affected by a high base and the reduction of national subsidies. The growth engine has switched to daily necessities and platform advertising. What needs to be seen in Q1 is whether these two areas can continue to bear the burden.

The external environment is also changing. In January of this year, the Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission Office of the State Council launched a competition investigation in the food delivery industry, targeting subsidy wars and traffic control. In February, the regulatory authority talked to Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, demanding an end to inward-competitive competition. Tighter regulation is beneficial for cooling the industry, but it also limits JD.com's space to grab shares by throwing money.

The current food delivery pattern is roughly Meituan 60%, Taobao Flash Purchase 30%, and JD.com 10% to 15%. JD.com set a goal in February to冲击 a 30% market share within the year. However, according to a previous Tencent News report, Alibaba clearly stated in investor communications at the beginning of January that the primary goal for Flash Purchase in 2026 is still to grow market share and will firmly increase investment. The battlefield is far from calm.

Overseas, JD.com's European e-commerce platform, JoyBuy, has been launched in the UK, Germany, France, and six other countries in March. Barclays research shows that the management said investments will be gradually advanced, focusing on fulfillment experience in the short term. JPMorgan Chase also observed that customer