Jefferies: Meta Smart Glasses Hardware Opportunity Worth Tens of Billions of Dollars
Miles Bennett
Jefferies sizes Meta's smart-glasses hardware revenue at $14 billion–$18 billion, sets an $825 target implying ~28% upside, and argues the market has yet to price this growth vector in.
Where does the $14–18 billion figure come from?
Analyst Brent Thill benchmarks against Apple Watch's penetration curve, assumes an average selling price of $400, and projects hardware revenue of $14B–$18B over the next several years.
This means → Jefferies models smart glasses as a "Watch-like" category — penetration rate times unit price, scaled over time.
Meta is currently the only player shipping at scale, which Jefferies views as a first-mover advantage.
Can user growth and production keep up?
Meta's smart-glasses daily active users tripled year-over-year; 2026 wearable production capacity has been raised to 20 million units.
In late June, Meta launched three new models: Adventurer, Fury, and Glasses by Kylie — expanding from a single product to a tiered lineup.
In plain terms = users are growing, capacity is expanding, and the product line is fanning out — that ramp curve is exactly what Jefferies is betting on.
What's the story beyond hardware?
Thill argues AI subscription services and advertising will generate revenue on top of device sales.
The bigger upside may be e-commerce: if AI agents shift from "browsing" to "agentic execution," glasses could capture purchase intent the moment a user spots a product, pushing Meta closer to the transaction itself.
This means → hardware is the entry point; the real monetization logic is "the AI on your glasses places the order for you" — turning an ad platform into a transaction platform.
What does Wall Street think, and where's the risk?
Per LSEG data, 57 of the 65 analysts covering Meta rate it buy or strong buy — Jefferies is aligned with consensus.
Yet Meta shares have fallen roughly 9% over the past year, underperforming the broader market.
This reflects a market stance of "direction endorsed, delivery in doubt" — whether smart glasses can convert scale shipments into actual revenue remains the key validation point.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.