Jefferies Survey: 2026 Cloud Spending Expected to Rise 10.1%, Microsoft Bullish Among 85% of CIOs
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A Jefferies survey of 40 IT executives shows 2026 enterprise cloud spending growth accelerating to 10.1%, with 85% of CIOs planning to increase Microsoft spending; meanwhile Adobe's net score plunged to -27%, signaling a shakeout among legacy software vendors.
Cloud budgets are accelerating — where is the money going?
Surveyed CIOs expect 2026 cloud spending growth to rise from 9.6% to 10.1%. 95% expect their cloud budgets to increase.
This means → enterprise cloud adoption is past the trial phase and entering an acceleration cycle — growth is still picking up, not plateauing.
The most direct beneficiaries are Microsoft and Amazon AWS, which dominate enterprise cloud spending.
Why did Microsoft score the highest?
85% of CIOs plan to increase Microsoft spending in 2026. Not a single respondent plans to cut. Net bullish score ranks first among all vendors.
Amazon AWS scored a net 56%, Palo Alto Networks 53%, ServiceNow 47% — all positive, but a clear gap behind Microsoft.
In plain terms = Microsoft received a near-unanimous vote of confidence. AWS and security vendors are also favored, but no one else achieved zero detractors.
Why has Adobe suddenly become the cautionary tale?
Only 11% of CIOs expect to increase Adobe spending; 38% expect cuts. Net score plunged from 0% to -27% since the last survey.
This means → CIOs are voting with their budgets: legacy application software without a clear AI positioning gets cut directly.
Jefferies says this confirms a broader call — legacy software vendors are losing their footing in the AI era, and budgets are shifting toward cloud-native and security players.
AI budgets are overspent — but is the spend paying off?
68% of CIOs now have a standalone AI budget. AI spending accounts for roughly 11% of total IT budgets.
73% of respondents say year-to-date Token/API spending — the pay-per-use cost of calling large language models — has exceeded initial budgets. 5% have already exhausted their full-year AI budget.
Jefferies calls this "tokenmaxxing." In plain terms = enterprises are consuming AI far faster than they planned, and the bills are running ahead of schedule.
But ROI is already showing up: software development and customer service are the two clearest payoff areas for AI right now.
How will the software sector split in 2026?
Software budget growth is expected to rise from 4.8% to 6.2%. 83% of CIOs expect increases; only 5% expect declines.
Cybersecurity budget growth sits at 6.2%, slightly below 2025's 6.6%, but 90% expect increases and no CIO plans to cut.
This reflects a structural shift: AI and security have locked in the top priority slots in enterprise IT. Budgets are migrating from legacy software vendors to cloud-native and security players. Whether a software company can find its footing in the AI era will be the defining factor in 2026 stock-price divergence.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.