JPMorgan Cuts Tesla Q2 Delivery Forecast to 420,000 Units
Miles Bennett
JPMorgan cut its Tesla Q2 delivery forecast from 430,500 to 420,000 units, trimming earnings estimates in step; the move reflects a structural split between weakening U.S. EV demand and a still-strong European market.
How much did the delivery estimate drop?
Analyst Rajat Gupta lowered his Q2 delivery forecast from 430,500 to 420,000 units — a cut of roughly 2.4%.
The reason: recent EV demand signals are "mixed" — not collapsing, but running hot in some regions and cold in others.
This means → JPMorgan sees Tesla's near-term shipment pace slowing, but not breaking down.
What happened to the earnings forecast?
Q2 EPS — earnings per share, the slice of profit assigned to each share — was cut from $0.44 to $0.42.
Full-year 2026 EPS was trimmed from $1.95 to $1.90.
This means → fewer deliveries shrink revenue and profit; the full-year earnings outlook is now 2.6% lower.
What is going on with demand — Europe hot, U.S. cold?
JPMorgan's read: Europe remains a bright spot for EV demand, while U.S. demand is softer year-over-year.
The main drag in the U.S. is the phase-out of purchase incentives — government subsidies and tax credits.
Gupta was blunt: "In the U.S., there is little evidence that higher oil prices have materially boosted EV demand."
In plain terms = oil prices went up, but Americans did not rush to buy EVs — undercutting the intuition that expensive gas is good for EV sales.
Where does JPMorgan stand on Tesla stock?
The bank kept its Neutral rating and $475 price target unchanged.
This means → the delivery and earnings cuts were not severe enough to warrant a downgrade.
On the day of the note, Tesla shares fell 1.82% intraday.
Actual Q2 delivery numbers, when reported, will be the key test of these demand calls.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.