JPMorgan: Funds Rotate Back into Gold and Copper, Metals Net Longs Rise Nearly $20 Billion
Nashnova编辑部
In the week to August 7, commodity money poured out of energy and agriculture and into gold and copper — metals net longs surged nearly $20 billion, a clear bet on the twin themes of safe-haven demand and China restocking.
Where did the money come from, and where did it go?
Commodity open interest tracked by JPMorgan rose 1% to $1.8 trillion.
The flow in one line: energy −$8.7 bn, agriculture −$5.0 bn → precious metals +$8.0 bn, base metals +$9.6 bn.
This means → investors executed a large-scale reallocation from risk assets into safe havens and physical-shortage plays in a single week, pushing total net longs to $205 billion.
Why did gold attract the most money?
Precious-metals open interest jumped 14% to $288 billion, a 12-week high; gold alone drew roughly $12.6 billion in net inflows.
COMEX gold managed-money net longs rose by 11,000 contracts to 131,000 contracts.
JPMorgan attributes the move to three drivers: safe-haven demand (geopolitical + economic anxiety), rate-cut expectations, and a weaker-dollar outlook.
In plain terms = markets believe "uncertain economy + rates heading down + softer dollar" — all three arrows point at gold, so capital rushes in.
Where is copper's money coming from — is China restocking the key?
Base-metals open interest grew 7% to $242 billion; copper captured roughly $10 billion in net inflows — the dominant force in the entire base-metals complex.
JPMorgan notes that in early-to-mid July, China's onshore copper inventories sat at low levels and kept drawing down, pushing domestic premiums higher.
At the same time, the import-arbitrage window between the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange — the price gap that makes it profitable to ship copper into China — stayed open, boosting incentives to move copper and zinc into the country.
This means → the copper rally is not just speculative; China's physical "shortage + restocking" cycle is providing fundamental price support.
Why is energy falling instead?
Energy open interest dropped 5% to $795 billion; Brent and WTI crude fell 8%, diesel 10%, TTF natural gas 6%.
The Middle East suffered the largest supply disruption on record — yet oil prices did not spike.
JPMorgan cites three reasons: demand far weaker than expected + limited inventory drawdowns + record year-on-year non-OPEC supply growth — a triple cushion that offset the disruption.
In plain terms = supply took a major hit, but demand was even weaker, inventories held up, and other producers pumped at record pace — together, they kept oil from rallying.
What is the hidden risk in natural gas?
Qatar has accelerated LNG loading at Ras Laffan — its largest LNG complex — but loaded vessels are effectively serving as floating storage in the Gulf; they are full but cannot transit.
JPMorgan warns: if ship transit remains blocked for another one to two weeks, Qatar's LNG plants may be forced to sharply curtail or even shut down production.
This reflects a timing mismatch: by the time supply recovers, the Northern Hemisphere may already be in peak winter demand season, amplifying any shortfall.
What matters most from here?
JPMorgan expects net longs to rise by a further $18.4 billion, driven mainly by gold (+$13.1 bn) and crude oil (+$3.8 bn).
On the macro side, despite a soft U.S. jobs report, survey and activity data point to strengthening growth momentum — global growth in H2 2026 could be stronger than previously expected.
The agriculture concern: U.S. wheat output is forecast at 1.54 billion bushels, the lowest since 1970/71; escalating Ukrainian and Russian strikes on ports and vessels could further disrupt Black Sea agricultural exports.
Trading signals are sharply split: gold and silver short-term signals have flipped to "buy," while WTI crude and TTF gas have flipped to "sell" — whether this metals-vs-energy funding divergence persists is the key variable to watch across commodity markets.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.