JPMorgan: GLP-1 Markets in China, India, and Brazil to Reach $22 Billion by 2035
nashnova research
JPMorgan estimates the combined GLP-1 market across China, India, and Brazil will grow from $6.6 billion today to $22 billion by 2035, compounding at roughly 15% a year — patent cliffs, generics, and policy-driven price cuts are turning these drugs from a rich-world growth story into a global-access one.
$6.6 Billion to $22 Billion — What's Driving It?
The three countries' combined GLP-1 market sits at roughly $6.6 billion today. JPMorgan projects it will reach $22 billion by 2035, a ~15% CAGR.
Three forces are pushing prices down simultaneously: patent cliffs — when the originator drug's patent expires, other makers can legally copy it — generic launches, and government-mandated price reductions.
This means → GLP-1 is shifting from a "developed-market growth theme" to a "global affordability story." The inflection point is access, not new indications.
Why Could China Overtake Brazil by 2027?
Brazil is currently the largest GLP-1 market among the three, but JPMorgan expects China to surpass it by 2027, reaching $13.7 billion by 2035 versus Brazil's $8 billion.
China rests on two pillars: the world's largest diabetic population — over 25% of global diagnosed cases — and steady expansion of public insurance coverage for GLP-1 therapies.
In plain terms = China's GLP-1 penetration is below 0.1% today; the U.S. is already at 4%–5%. The gap itself is the opportunity.
Why Is India the Toughest Market?
India's adult obesity rate is projected to reach 11% by 2035, and its diabetic population accounts for roughly 15% of global cases — a massive potential base.
But JPMorgan flags two barriers: cultural resistance to injectable drugs and extreme price sensitivity. Current penetration sits below 0.2%.
This means → India has the patients but lacks the willingness to pay. Converting latent demand into actual prescriptions remains unclear in the near term.
Which Four Stocks Did JPMorgan Name?
The report highlights four core beneficiaries: Innovent Biologics (01801.HK) in China, Divi's Laboratories (DIVI.NS) and Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TORP.NS) in India, and RD Saude (RADL3.SA) in Brazil.
This reflects a stock-picking logic that spans all three countries and covers both R&D and retail — not a single-market bet.
What's the Biggest Risk to This Forecast?
The enormous penetration gap between these three markets and the U.S. is both the source of current undervaluation and the key variable for whether growth materializes.
Put simply = how fast insurance reimbursement expands and how far generics can push prices down — the pace of these two lines will determine whether $22 billion arrives on schedule.
Brazil's obesity-population penetration is expected to reach only 7%–8% by 2035, still well below the U.S.'s projected ~30% — even the most mature of the three markets has a ceiling far from reached.
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