JPMorgan Raises ASML Price Target to $2,200; 2027 Outlook Is Key to Re-Rating
Claire Weston
JPMorgan lifted its ASML target to $2,200, implying ~24% upside from the latest close; but the bank is clear that the Q2 print on July 15 is not the trigger — management's guidance on 2027 EUV deliveries is what will decide whether the stock re-rates.
Q2 estimates are below consensus — why isn't that bearish?
JPMorgan forecasts Q2 revenue at €8.7 billion, 1.4% below consensus; gross margin at 51.7%, just under the Street's 52%.
Yet the bank argues DUV lithography tools — the "previous-generation" workhorse that prints circuits with deep-ultraviolet light — are shipping ahead of plan, giving ASML room to raise its full-year 2026 guidance.
This means → the Q2 numbers being "slightly soft" is beside the point; what matters is whether they set up a full-year upgrade.
Why are JPMorgan's 2027 earnings estimates so far above consensus?
The bank models 2027 and 2028 EPS at €54.4 and €64.4, respectively 26.5% and 23.8% above current Street estimates.
The logic: customer orders only started in December 2025, too late for supply chains to ramp capacity in time. Many EUV tools cannot ship within the 2026 window and spill into 2027.
In plain terms = 2026 isn't a demand problem — it's a "factory calendar" problem. Once capacity catches up, 2027 growth should far exceed the industry average.
What does management need to say on July 15 for the market to buy in?
JPMorgan lays out two scenarios: if management signals roughly 90 EUV tools deliverable in 2027, that is a mild positive; if the figure is 90–100, the impact is strongly bullish.
Any detail on 2028-and-beyond capacity planning will also draw intense attention.
This means → July 15 is not an ordinary earnings call — it is a "delivery-volume roadshow." The more specific the numbers, the harder the re-rating case becomes.
Why has ASML underperformed its U.S. peers by so much?
Since September 2025, ASML has underperformed Applied Materials and Lam Research by roughly 100%–125%, and KLA by more than 15%.
Its forward P/E remains below its historical peak of 45×, while U.S. peers trade 76%–86% above their own historical highs.
ASML currently sits at an ~11% valuation discount to those U.S. names — versus a historical average premium of ~84%.
This reflects a market that doubts ASML's near-term growth visibility. The swing from premium to discount spans nearly 100 percentage points.
Where does the re-rating money come from?
JPMorgan notes that ASML's weighting in major European equity indices is already very high; European inflows alone cannot drive a re-rating.
The company needs to attract incremental capital from the U.S. and Asia — and the prerequisite is showing a growth outlook stronger than its American peers.
In plain terms = the European fund pool is already "full of ASML." To push the price higher, American and Asian buyers need to believe it is a better bet than its U.S. competitors.
How high a ceiling does long-term monopoly status support?
ASML is the world's sole EUV lithography supplier. JPMorgan estimates its share of the lithography-tool market will exceed 80%–89%.
High-NA EUV — the next-generation, higher-precision variant — is expected to ramp from 2027, raising the lithography spend required per wafer.
Rising EUV adoption in DRAM — the share of memory-chip production using EUV — adds another growth lever.
This means → monopoly status keeps the volume ceiling very high, but whether the stock can price it in still comes back to the delivery numbers management gives on July 15.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.