JPMorgan Raises Eli Lilly Price Target to $1,650
nashnova research
JPMorgan raised its Eli Lilly price target to $1,650, implying roughly 20% upside; the call rests on Mounjaro and Zepbound continuing to beat expectations and an oral drug pipeline set to take the baton.
Why raise the target now?
The direct trigger is a Q3 beat: revenue hit $24.397 billion, up 39% year-on-year and roughly 7.9% above the LSEG consensus of $22.61 billion.
Adjusted EPS came in at $7.48, about 19.5% above the Street's $6.26. This means → the profit beat was far larger than the revenue beat, signaling that scale is amplifying margins.
Lilly shares rose 6.63% on earnings day; the Nasdaq 100 and the SOX index fell 1.38% and 1.42% respectively.
How strong are the two flagship weight-loss drugs?
Mounjaro posted $10.723 billion in global sales, up 65%, beating consensus by roughly 5.5%. Zepbound posted $5.352 billion, up 49%, beating by about 5.1%.
Together the two drugs contributed roughly 66% of group revenue and about 88% of year-on-year revenue growth. In plain terms = Lilly's growth story is almost entirely these two drugs right now.
Volume rose 53%, but realized prices fell 15%. This reflects a deliberate volume-over-price strategy — cut price now, lock in a larger patient base for the long run.
Can overseas expansion and insurance coverage sustain the run?
Mounjaro's ex-U.S. revenue reached roughly $5.7 billion, up 93%. JPMorgan projects ex-U.S. revenue rising from about $21 billion in 2026 to roughly $28 billion in 2027.
Since the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program — a federal insurance pathway covering weight-loss drugs for seniors — launched in July, over 500,000 people have accessed Lilly drugs through it; about 70% of new enrollees chose Lilly.
Roughly 80% of participants had never used incretin therapy — drugs that mimic gut hormones to control blood sugar and weight. This means → insurance expansion is pulling genuinely new patients into treatment, not just reshuffling existing users.
How far above consensus is JPMorgan's earnings forecast?
JPMorgan's 2027 adjusted EPS estimate is $55.20, about 16.4% above the Bloomberg consensus of $47.44 — the core expectation gap behind the target raise.
The profit growth case does not depend on rising gross margins: the model assumes gross margin dips from 84.2% to 83.5% over 2026–2028, while SG&A falls from 14.1% to 12.4%. In plain terms = as the revenue base grows, each dollar of revenue carries less overhead, and profit expands on its own.
Free cash flow is projected to rise from $32.55 billion in 2026 to $48.79 billion in 2028, assuming $6.5 billion annual capex throughout.
Can oral drugs and non-metabolic lines pick up the slack?
Oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo posted Q3 revenue of $184 million, below the $217 million consensus — commercial ramp is still early-stage.
The catalyst calendar is clearly laid out: Foundayo approval for type-2 diabetes expected late 2026 to early 2027; next-generation candidate retatrutide expected late 2027; key Alzheimer's and early breast-cancer data also due in 2027.
This means → Lilly's growth thesis is evolving from "two injectable blockbusters" to "multi-product relay." Whether the oral pipeline can scale around 2027 is the key proof point for that thesis.
What do other houses say?
Jefferies maintains Buy, raising its target from $1,440 to $1,610. Barclays holds at $1,400.
BMO analyst Evan Seigerman noted Foundayo trailed expectations, but said the broader commercial strength reduces the significance of that shortfall.
Lilly itself raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $91–92 billion, a $5.5 billion midpoint increase, though adjusted EPS guidance was trimmed slightly due to acquired in-process R&D charges.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。