JPMorgan Survey: China's PCB Industry AI Upcycle Remains Intact
Taylor Wilson
J.P. Morgan visited Greater Bay Area PCB suppliers and manufacturers on July 12 and concluded that the AI upcycle remains intact, backed by strong orders and multi-year visibility — but ultimate market share hinges on yield and scaled delivery.
Vera Rubin is in mass production — who gets the orders?
Vera Rubin PCB has entered mass production, with both incumbent and new suppliers participating.
J.P. Morgan notes initial share allocation may be relatively even, but new entrants do not automatically erode incumbents' share.
This means → the final split depends on four hard metrics: yield stability, material readiness, supporting capacity, and delivery speed.
Next-gen Kyber is delayed — does it matter?
Nvidia's next-generation Kyber NVL144 architecture is still in multi-scheme parallel testing. Backplane complexity, warpage control, material selection, and system-level validation are the main bottlenecks.
In plain terms = Kyber hasn't been locked in yet — several designs are running side by side, and it's unclear which will pass.
J.P. Morgan argues that even if Kyber slips, the hit to the 2028 AI PCB market would largely be offset by two forces: stronger demand for existing Nvidia generations and rising adoption of ASIC — application-specific integrated circuit — solutions.
Why is mSAP becoming critical?
Demand for mSAP — modified semi-additive process, a method that etches finer traces on PCBs — keeps expanding, driven by optical-module upgrades toward 1.6T and beyond and future CoWoP-platform PCB designs.
Multiple suppliers are adding capacity, but J.P. Morgan stresses that expansion is only a capacity-side move — order conversion still depends on process stability, customer qualification, yield ramp, and delivery cadence.
This means → revenue and margin upside in high-end PCB rides on execution variables, not just installed capacity.
Can China's AI buildout support meaningful incremental demand?
China's AI infrastructure buildout and spec upgrades could begin driving incremental demand for high-end AI PCB from 2027 onward.
J.P. Morgan notes this variable sits closer to China's domestic supply chain, making customer collaboration, delivery radius, and iteration speed more critical for Chinese PCB makers.
The market still needs confirmation on orders, specs, pricing, and margins — whether 2027 marks a step-up to higher-spec construction is the key checkpoint for validating demand-pool expansion.
Copper-clad laminate prices are rising — who absorbs it and who can't?
Supply tightness and price increases in CCL — copper-clad laminate, the core base material of a PCB — are the main margin concern.
The field study reveals a clear split between high-end and low-end: AI-grade high-end CCL supply is relatively manageable, with limited contract-price rises as customers prioritize supply security and accept renegotiation. Manufacturers with stable CCL sourcing and yield show stronger margin resilience.
This reflects a very different picture at the low end — supply is tighter, price spikes sharper, and PCB makers with heavy consumer and auto exposure face weaker cost pass-through and the most acute margin pressure.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.