June Residential Prices in First-Tier Cities Rise MoM, While Second- and Third-Tier Cities Decline or Stay Flat
0xBroomberg
China's NBS June figures show tier-1 city home prices rose month-on-month while tier-2 and tier-3 cities fell or stayed flat — the housing divergence is hardening, though year-on-year declines across all tiers kept narrowing.
Tier-1 cities rose — what does that actually mean?
Tier-1 cities were the only group to post a month-on-month increase in residential prices in June.
This means → capital and demand are still concentrating into top-tier markets; pricing power in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not loosened.
Why can't tier-2 and tier-3 cities keep up?
Tier-2 residential prices were flat or down month-on-month; tier-3 cities showed the same pattern.
In plain terms = outside the big four, most cities' home prices have not stabilised — buyers remain on the sidelines.
Year-on-year declines are narrowing — is that good news?
Across all three tiers, the year-on-year drop kept shrinking — prices are falling more slowly than a year ago.
This means → the steepest phase of the downturn may be over, but "falling more slowly" is not the same as "about to rise."
This reflects a market grinding along the bottom: policy support has prevented a freefall, but genuine demand-side confidence has not returned.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.