Key Events Next Week: Nonfarm Payrolls, China PMI & Semiconductor Industry-Wide Price Hikes in July
N.R. Finch
Three macro releases — U.S. nonfarm payrolls, China's PMI, and South Korea's exports — land in the first week of July, while more than ten chipmakers raise prices by up to 40% starting July 1. Whether the data and the price signals reinforce each other will set the market's tone.
Nonfarm payrolls and Waller's speech — what is the Fed signaling?
June nonfarm payrolls land July 2. The consensus expects 113,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate.
Strong hiring and wage data would reinforce rate-hike expectations — the Fed's June meeting and Chair Waller already struck a hawkish tone.
Waller speaks at the ECB's annual forum in Portugal on July 1 — the last major policy signal before the jobs report. This means → markets face a two-day read: Waller sets the tone first, then payrolls either confirm or contradict it.
China PMI and Korean exports — how strong is the Asian engine?
China's official manufacturing PMI for June comes out June 30. May printed at 50.0, down 0.3 points; the market expects a modest rebound. The export-weighted RatingDog manufacturing PMI follows on July 1.
South Korea's June export figures, also due July 1, are forecast by Bloomberg Economics at +62.5% year-on-year, up from May's 53.4%. This means → the driver is AI chip demand — chip exports in the first 20 days of June surged 188.4% year-on-year.
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey, released the same day, is expected to hold the large-manufacturer index steady at 17. A solid reading would strengthen the BOJ's case for exiting stimulus.
The semiconductor price-hike wave — who is raising, and by how much?
Murata is raising prices on AI-server and high-end automotive MLCC — multilayer ceramic capacitors, one of the most basic components in electronics — by 10% to 40%. Infineon and Texas Instruments are both hiking for the second time this year, covering power-management chips and MOSFETs (transistors that switch and regulate current).
MediaTek has notified customers of coming chip-price increases. According to The Paper, the round covers nearly all IC-design houses in Taiwan; Realtek plans hikes of more than 10% on select product lines starting July, and Novatek is also renegotiating with customers.
In plain terms = from upstream materials to finished chips, more than ten major companies are raising prices on the same day — this is not a one-off adjustment but the entire supply chain passing through cost pressure simultaneously.
How far has the price wave spread beyond chips?
Power semiconductors: Yangjie Tech is raising across its full lineup by 10% to 15%; Zing Semiconductor's power-chip and Jinruihong wafer businesses are both up 10% to 15%. Geegee Semiconductor and Huada Electronics have also announced MCU price hikes.
Materials and passives: CCL leader Kingboard Laminates has raised all FR-4 and prepreg products by 15%; Shengyi plans further hikes in July. Panasonic's SP-Cap capacitors are up 5% to 30%, Nippon Sanso's ammonia products average over 30%, and Youda Semiconductor's full range is up 15% to 30%.
Hikvision confirmed to the Shanghai Securities News that rising global AI compute and data-storage demand is pushing up costs for some storage products in Q3, and hard-drive prices will rise accordingly. This means → the hikes have spread from chips themselves to storage, passive components, and base materials. Bloomberg Economics notes that whether these increases pass through to end-product prices is the key question.
Samsung's 1,000-trillion-won investment plan — how big is it?
According to Maeil Business, Samsung Group will announce a ten-year domestic investment plan on June 29 totaling ₩1,000 trillion (roughly $647.5 billion, or about ¥4 trillion).
This means → the figure equals roughly half of South Korea's GDP — the largest corporate investment commitment in the country's history. Reports indicate the plan may include ₩300 trillion for chip factories in southwestern Korea; chip manufacturing is the core destination.
In plain terms = Samsung is putting its "bet on home soil" intention on the table. The chip-factory portion alone could account for nearly a third of the total plan.
What else is on the calendar?
The ECB's annual central-banking forum runs June 29 – July 1 in Portugal. ECB President Lagarde, BOE Governor Bailey, and other top central bankers will speak; the global monetary-policy outlook is the focal point.
Nike reports Q4 FY2026 earnings after the close on June 30. NetEase converts to a dual-primary listing on the HKEX starting June 30.
The People's Bank of China will add an overnight reverse-repo instrument to its open-market operations on June 29–30, using fixed-rate quantity bidding. China's smart-connected-vehicle road-testing safety standard takes effect July 1. Seven OPEC+ members hold their next meeting on July 5.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.