KeyBanc Raises Micron Price Target to $175, Implying Nearly 90% Upside
Alina Collins
KeyBanc lifted its Micron price target from $1,600 to $1,750, implying roughly 87% upside from Monday's close; analyst John Vinh sees memory supply staying tight through at least 2027 after an Asia supply-chain check.
How did they get to $1,750?
Vinh applied a 9× P/E multiple to his fiscal-year 2027 earnings estimate for Micron.
This means → the call is a bet on profits two years out, not this year's numbers — the more bullish the long-range forecast, the higher the target.
Wall Street's average target sits at roughly $1,579; KeyBanc is about 11% above consensus, among the most aggressive on the Street.
Why would memory prices keep rising?
After his Asia supply-chain tour, Vinh concluded that memory shortages persist and supply will stay tight through at least 2027.
DRAM — the workhorse memory chip in phones, PCs, and servers — is expected to rise 15%–20% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, then another ~15% in Q4.
NAND flash — the storage chip inside phones and SSDs — is set for an even steeper climb: 30%–40% in Q3, plus ~15% in Q4.
Is the HBM-price-doubling call realistic?
Vinh forecasts that high-bandwidth memory (HBM — the high-speed memory built specifically for AI chips) will more than double in price next year, well above some peers' conservative estimates.
This means → if HBM pricing does double, Micron's profit leverage as a major HBM supplier would far exceed its conventional memory business.
In plain terms = HBM pricing is the core bet behind the bull case — if it delivers, $1,750 has support; if it falls short, the thesis needs a haircut.
How did the stock react?
Micron fell 4.3% on Monday alongside a broader chip-sector selloff, closing at $937.
After the note hit, shares bounced 3.1% in Tuesday pre-market to $965.61, roughly recovering the prior day's drop.
This reflects a market still willing to buy the "memory-price inflation" narrative — but the gap from $937 to $1,750 is 87%, and closing it depends on actual pricing data quarter by quarter.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.