Kioxia Surpasses Toyota as Japan's Most Valuable Company
N.R. Finch
On June 12 Kioxia's stock rose another ~8%, pushing its market cap past Toyota's ~¥44 trillion to become Japan's most valuable listed company; barely a year ago this flash-memory maker ranked 169th — AI data-center storage demand is rewriting the hierarchy.
Why did Japan's market-cap crown change hands twice in one month?
In early June SoftBank surged ~14% in a single day, lifting its market cap to ~¥48 trillion and overtaking Toyota for the first time in 22 years; Kioxia sat third at ~¥40 trillion.
Just over a week later Kioxia leapfrogged Toyota. This means → the engine driving Japan's market-cap rankings has shifted from "platform tech giants" to "AI hardware supply chain."
The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.81% at 66,020.04 the same day — the broader market is riding the AI-hardware wave too.
How does a stock rise 3,900% in one year?
Kioxia listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in December 2024. Last June it ranked 169th by market cap in Japan; over the past year the stock has surged more than 3,900%, with a year-to-date gain of ~660%.
It is now one of the top performers in the entire MSCI World Index. In plain terms = a company listed for barely 18 months went from "off the radar" to "Japan's most valuable."
This reflects how fast the market is pricing in the NAND flash memory — chips that retain data even when powered off — upcycle, far faster than any prior memory boom.
Can earnings support that stock price?
In FY2025 (ending March 2026) Kioxia posted revenue of ¥2.337 trillion, up 37% year-on-year; operating profit hit ¥870.4 billion, up ~93% — both all-time highs, beating analyst estimates.
The forward guidance is even more striking: Kioxia projects Q1 FY2027 operating profit of ¥1.3 trillion, up 117% quarter-on-quarter, nearly 50% above the Bloomberg consensus.
This means → the company's own confidence for a single quarter ahead is well above even the Street's most bullish forecast.
How strong is AI data-center demand, really?
The core logic: cloud providers building generative-AI infrastructure need massive data storage → NAND flash demand is surging.
At the same time Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting more capacity toward HBM — high-bandwidth memory paired with AI processors — leaving less capacity for NAND → Kioxia is picking up the freed order flow.
Counterpoint data: Q1 2026 global NAND revenue reached $46 billion, up 246% year-on-year, exceeding all of 2023 combined; average NAND prices doubled in the March quarter and supply remains tight.
Will the supply-demand gap last?
Kioxia itself expects NAND demand to exceed supply through calendar year 2027. In plain terms = the company sees at least another 18 months of a seller's market.
Analysts are following suit: on June 10 SMBC Nikko raised its target from ¥48,000 to ¥126,000; Nomura raised from ~¥71,900 to ¥115,000.
The rationale: improved visibility on Kioxia's earnings expansion through FY2029. This means → sell-side firms are no longer pricing just one or two good quarters — they are underwriting a growth curve stretching three-plus years.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.