Korean Brokerages Cut Target Prices for Samsung and SK Hynix in Quick Succession as Memory Peak Concerns Mount
Taylor Wilson
Since late July, multiple Korean brokerages have cut price targets on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix by up to 33%, citing peak-cycle risks in commodity memory and a 2027 supply expansion — yet every house keeps a buy rating, banking on HBM as the long-term value anchor.
How deep are the target cuts?
Mirae Asset led the pack: Samsung from ₩550k to ₩370k, SK Hynix from ₩4.2m to ₩2.8m — both down 33%.
Kiwoom was milder: Samsung from ₩390k to ₩350k, Hynix from ₩2.2m to ₩2.1m.
Shinhan Investment and Samsung Securities also cut, but every house kept a "buy" rating.
This means → brokers see short-term overpricing, yet none has turned bearish — the disagreement is about timing, not direction.
Where is the pressure on commodity memory coming from?
Demand side: high memory prices are making smartphone makers cautious; PC and laptop demand may also undershoot expectations.
Supply side: long-term agreements (LTAs — large contracts locking in price and volume) are driving capacity expansion that will add significant new output by 2027.
In plain terms = upstream fabs are still building aggressively while downstream buyers are already hesitating — pressure is closing in from both ends.
Prices are still rising — so why the worry?
Korea Investment & Securities expects Q2 DRAM and NAND ASPs to climb roughly 30% and 50% quarter-on-quarter, respectively.
But HBM — high-bandwidth memory designed for AI chips — is mostly priced through LTAs, capping its upside and dragging down SK Hynix's blended ASP elasticity.
This means → the market is not worried about a sudden demand collapse. The real question is whether rising prices can keep translating into profit growth — revenue may climb while margins plateau.
How far have the stocks already fallen?
As of August 11, Samsung closed at ₩239,500 — roughly 36% below its June record of ₩374,500.
SK Hynix closed at ₩1,425,000 — more than 52% off its ₩2,987,000 peak.
This reflects a market already voting with its feet — target cuts look more like brokers catching up with reality than leading expectations.
What makes HBM strong enough to keep a buy rating?
Kiwoom forecasts Samsung's 2027 HBM shipments rising 109% year-on-year, with blended ASPs up 81%, potentially reclaiming the top HBM market-share position.
Korea Investment & Securities expects HBM4 mass shipments from Q3 onward to lift SK Hynix's overall ASP, maintaining a ₩3.8m target.
In plain terms = commodity memory is the old engine slowing down; HBM is the new engine speeding up — brokers are betting the new engine accelerates faster than the old one decelerates.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.