Korean Media: SK Hynix Has No Plans to Expand NAND Flash Production, Kioxia's Market Share Expected to Rise
Taylor Wilson
SK Hynix aims to raise DRAM wafer starts from 550,000 to ~1 million per month by 2030–2031, committing all new capacity to DRAM while leaving NAND expansion to rivals — a shift that hands incremental NAND supply to Kioxia and YMTC.
What does the ramp-up timeline look like?
New capacity centers on the Yongin semiconductor cluster, Phase 1 fab, split into 6 cleanrooms.
Equipment moves into the first cleanroom from February 2027; once installed, it adds 60,000 wafers/month. Each subsequent cleanroom follows at 6-month intervals.
By that math, Yongin Phase 1 alone adds 360,000 wafers/month by H1 2030.
The Cheongju M15X fab is also expanding: 40,000 wafers/month starting H2 this year, rising to roughly 80,000 next year.
Why all DRAM and zero NAND?
Under the current plan, every new wafer start is DRAM. NAND flash has no new capacity allocation at all.
NAND advances will come from increasing layer counts — stacking more storage cells vertically on the same wafer, boosting capacity without building new lines.
This means → earlier rumors that SK Hynix would add NAND capacity at a greenfield fab are now off the table.
Who picks up the NAND slack?
With SK Hynix stepping back, incremental NAND supply shifts to pure-play NAND makers, YMTC, and Kioxia.
Analysts flag Kioxia as the most direct beneficiary: it already holds greenfield fab space — built-out shells not yet equipped — ready for expansion.
In plain terms = Kioxia has "empty buildings" it can fill with equipment right away; competitors still need to break ground. That head start matters in a market-share race.
Will the plan actually materialize?
Partners remain cautious about execution. In 2022, SK Hynix shared capex guidance with suppliers, then slashed orders sharply that autumn.
Some partners that had already procured components based on the guidance suffered cash-flow shocks — and trust took a hit.
One partner source said near-term investment increases are certain and represent a major tailwind for equipment and materials firms. But he added: "The full plan can only be realized if market demand holds up."
Near-term, the investment increase is certain — a big positive for equipment and materials. But the full plan can only be realized if market demand holds up.
Supply-chain partner
SK Hynix supplier
(per Korean outlet the elec)
What is the deeper signal here?
This expansion blueprint was formed before Jensen Huang wrote "Please make more" at Computex — reflecting SK Hynix's own long-term conviction on AI-driven DRAM demand, not a reactive move to a customer's public plea.
Yet the leap from 550K to 1M wafers implies a near-doubling of capital commitment over a 5-year-plus execution window.
This means → SK Hynix's capex cadence and order follow-through over the next several years will become a key barometer for gauging HBM — high-bandwidth memory, the core companion chip for AI processors — supply-demand dynamics.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.