Long Zhipu, Short MiniMax: Pairs Trading Emerges in Hong Kong AI Stocks
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A pairs trade is forming in Hong Kong's AI sector: long Zhipu, short MiniMax, with the spread widening to 191 percentage points since late March. This means → the market is pricing a stark divergence in model quality and commercial viability between two Chinese AI firms that listed on the same day.
How much has this pairs trade made?
Since late March, Zhipu's stock has risen 139% while MiniMax has fallen 52%, and the spread keeps widening.
Gavekal Capital portfolio manager Leonid Mironov calls it "a very profitable trade."
This means → two companies in the same sector, listed at the same time, are getting diametrically opposite verdicts — not a sector swing, but single-stock divergence.
Why did pricing strategy become the dividing line?
Zhipu raised prices on its GLM models while maintaining sales volume; MiniMax cut the price of its flagship M3 by 50% just one week after launch to attract users.
JPMorgan analyst Olivia Xu read MiniMax's price cut as "a signal that model capability fell short of expectations," raising Zhipu's target while downgrading MiniMax.
In plain terms = if you can raise prices and still sell, the product is in demand; if you slash prices a week in, users aren't biting. The pricing move itself is a report card on model quality.
How will July's lockup expiry reshape this trade?
HSBC estimates that roughly 65% of MiniMax's total shares unlock on July 8; only about 6% of Zhipu's shares unlock on July 7.
This means → MiniMax will suddenly have a much larger free float, making it cheaper and easier to borrow shares for shorting — the friction for bears drops sharply.
The market's reaction after MiniMax's July 8 unlock will be the critical test of whether this pairs-trade thesis holds.
Is anyone pushing back?
Hedgeye Risk Management tech sector head Felix Wang acknowledges "shorting MiniMax is already quite popular," but notes both firms face similar long-term headwinds — DeepSeek competes on lower pricing, and more AI IPOs are coming to dilute capital, including Moonshot AI (the Kimi chatbot developer).
Bank of America Securities disagrees, initiating coverage of both companies this week with a "buy" rating, forecasting MiniMax will rebound once lockup selling pressure clears.
This reflects a market that is not one-sided: bulls bet on valuation repair after the overhang lifts; bears bet the fundamental gap will keep widening.
How did U.S. restrictions on Anthropic stir the pot?
Washington recently ordered limits on overseas access to Anthropic's top-tier products, redirecting investor attention toward Chinese AI names.
Zhipu seized the moment, releasing its most advanced open-source model to date and sending its stock up 33% in a single day.
Mironov warns that if MiniMax still cannot attract users during Anthropic's restricted window, "that is a very bad sign." In plain terms = if you can't convert users even when a major competitor is hobbled, the product itself lacks pull.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.