MacBook Neo Drives Apple Laptop Shipments Up Over 10%, but A18 Pro Chip Shortage Caps Full-Year Outlook
Claire Weston
MacBook Neo has beaten sales expectations since its March launch, lifting Apple laptop shipments by over 10% year-on-year in Q2 — but an A18 Pro chip shortage has slashed the full-year Neo forecast from 10 million units to just 6–7 million, with a visible shipment drop looming in H2.
How well is MacBook Neo selling?
MacBook Neo launched in March 2026 and has driven Apple laptop shipments up more than 10% year-on-year in Q2.
DIGITIMES Research puts overall MacBook sales growth at 14.8% for the same period.
This means → Neo is not a niche add-on — it is the core growth engine for Apple's laptop line right now.
Why is the chip supply falling short?
Neo uses the A18 Pro chip, fabricated by TSMC. Demand has already outstripped supply, making the chip the main shipment bottleneck.
In plain terms = Apple originally launched Neo partly to use up A18 Pro inventory left over from the iPhone 16 Pro line. Neo sold far better than expected, draining that inventory faster instead.
Analysts estimate Neo shipments for the full year at roughly 6–7 million units — well below the supply chain's earlier expectation of 10 million.
Is Nvidia taking Apple's fab capacity?
Supply-chain sources say the AI wave has made Nvidia TSMC's largest customer, displacing Apple and squeezing Apple's capacity allocation.
This reflects a broader shift: TSMC's capacity is tilting toward AI chips, and consumer-electronics clients are losing priority.
Apple has reportedly placed chip orders with Intel — this means → Apple is hedging TSMC capacity risk by diversifying suppliers.
Apple is currently unwilling to place new orders before existing A18 Pro inventory runs out, to avoid higher costs and margin compression.
What do price hikes and H2 shipments look like?
Apple has raised prices across its Mac and iPad lines by $100–$300, mainly reflecting higher costs for memory and other key components.
Contract manufacturer Quanta shipped roughly 4.5 million laptops in June, up 28% month-on-month, bringing its Q2 total to 11.5 million units.
ODMs — original design manufacturers, the factories that design and assemble products for brands — widely expect the 2026 shipment split to flip from the historical 45:55 (H1:H2) norm to 55:45.
In plain terms = H1 front-loading has borrowed from H2 orders. H2 shipments could fall 18–20% versus H1, and full-year volumes may decline by single to low-double digits compared with 2025.
Can Neo become the lead MacBook model by 2027?
Supply-chain sources expect Neo shipments to surpass 10 million units in 2027, making it the primary volume driver in the MacBook lineup.
Air shipments would then fall to 6–7 million, with the high-end Pro line at roughly 2.5–3 million. Total MacBook shipments could top 20 million.
This means → Neo is set to cannibalize the Air's traditional volume role — but only if the chip-supply bottleneck clears before then.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.