Macquarie Sharply Cuts Brent Crude Forecast: 2026 Average at $77
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Macquarie cut its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $89 to $77/barrel, arguing that Middle East supply will snap back far faster than the market expects after the US-Iran interim peace deal — a call that implies a structural downshift in the oil price floor.
How big is the cut?
The 2026 average drops from $89 to $77 per barrel — a $12 reduction, roughly 13%.
For 2027 the cut is even steeper: from $74 down to $64, lopping off another $10.
This means → Macquarie sees not a short-term blip but a structural decline in the price center — the further out, the cheaper.
Why is Macquarie more bearish than consensus?
Core thesis: after the US-Iran interim peace deal, Persian Gulf crude exports will normalize quickly.
Strategists Peter Taylor and Vikas Dwivedi wrote: "The market is significantly underestimating the speed of supply recovery."
They cite three drivers — the region's deep production expertise, ample tank storage, and advances in field-rotation technology.
In plain terms = the Middle East is not rebuilding capacity from scratch; it is turning the tap back on — and it can do so faster than outsiders assume.
What was the oil market like before the war?
Macquarie flags a fact easy to overlook: the market was already oversupplied before the conflict began.
During the war, shrinking demand plus drawdowns of "low-visibility inventories" — hidden stocks outside official tallies — partly offset the supply gap.
This reflects why prices stayed relatively subdued despite a historic shock: the baseline was surplus, not balance.
What happens to prices in the near term?
The report expects a bounce first, then a fade — a choppy path, not a straight line down.
The bounce driver: shipowners remain cautious about Middle East transit, creating temporary freight tightness that props up spot prices.
Once shipping lanes normalize, prices should ease again. Over a longer horizon, the need to rebuild commercial and strategic inventories provides a floor.
Where is the biggest disagreement?
Macquarie's call hinges on a key verification point: whether Middle Eastern producers can deliver a meaningful output recovery within the next few months.
This means → if the rebound is as fast as Macquarie expects, global rebalancing arrives ahead of schedule; if not, consensus may prove closer to reality.
In plain terms = this is a bet on speed — Macquarie is betting fast, the market is betting slow, and the next few months will settle it.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.