Mag7 Correlation Drops to 10-Year Low: Apple Leads, Tesla Lags
nashnova research
The 60-day rolling correlation among the Magnificent Seven has dropped to a ten-year low; Apple leads the pack at +26.8% year-to-date while Tesla trails at -10.8%, signaling that the era of trading these seven stocks as a single block is over.
Correlation at a ten-year low — what does that mean?
Per CNBC's calculation, the average 60-day rolling correlation across all 21 pairs within the Mag 7 has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. This means → these seven stocks are moving less and less in sync — like a band where everyone plays a different tune.
The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (ticker: MAGS) is up just 7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained 12% — the Mag 7 as a group is underperforming the broader market.
In plain terms = buying "the Mag 7" used to feel like buying one fund; now each stock has its own story, and they need to be picked individually.
Who's up, who's down — how wide is the gap?
Leaders: Apple +26.8%, Nvidia +17.3%, Microsoft +10.7%, Amazon +8.8%, Alphabet +2.2%.
Laggards: Meta -5.2%, Tesla -10.8% — the only two with negative year-to-date returns.
This means → the spread between the best and worst performer is nearly 38 percentage points — stocks wearing the same label have fully diverged.
Why the divergence? Each company's AI exposure is different
D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria noted that the seven companies have "different exposures to AI," requiring investors to take "a more granular approach rather than buying them as a group."
The market now tracks a distinct metric for each name: Microsoft → Azure cloud growth; Nvidia → chip-demand durability; Apple → device-and-services ecosystem; Tesla → AI, robotics, and Robotaxi transformation.
In plain terms = they all carry the "AI" tag, but some are already monetizing AI while others are still spending to build the narrative — and the market has started telling them apart.
How did Apple go from laggard to leader?
In 2025, Apple rose just 8.9% — second-worst among the seven. Year-to-date in 2026, it sits at +26.8%, now in first place.
Freedom Capital Markets strategist Jay Woods called Apple "the steady tortoise in this race," citing its product lineup and App Store ecosystem. Luria positioned it as "a safe haven from the AI trade" and a "tech utility" embedded in daily life.
This reflects a broader pattern: as the AI narrative gets crowded and uncertainty rises, capital gravitates toward names with higher certainty and more stable cash flow.
What about Nvidia and Wall Street ratings?
Nvidia's stock has pulled back more than 13% since peaking on October 6. Woods sees it in a "digestion phase," with valuations still relatively low versus history.
Wall Street remains broadly bullish on the seven: Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia each carry 97% buy or strong-buy ratings; Alphabet 92%, Meta 89%, Apple 58%, Tesla 50%.
This means → analyst conviction itself is diverging — Apple and Tesla sit at the weakest consensus, mapping neatly onto the performance extremes.
What does this mean for everyday investors?
The logic of allocating to "the Mag 7" as a single basket is breaking down. Each stock's fundamentals and the pace at which its AI strategy delivers will determine who wins and who lags in the next phase.
In plain terms = the lazy "buy all seven" playbook no longer works — investors need to understand where each company's AI story actually stands.
Roundhill strategist Thomas DiFazio's framing: investors are now focused on each company's "independent fundamental growth drivers" and their "different positions in the AI winners-and-losers ranking."
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