Major Global Central Banks Collectively Pause Rate Hikes in October Amid Lingering Inflation Pressures
nashnova research
Major central banks collectively paused rate hikes in October, but economists warn the tightening cycle is not over — oil prices keep climbing and inflation has not retreated.
What happened in October?
Among G10 central banks, only the Bank of Canada raised rates in October. The Fed, ECB, RBNZ, and BOJ all held steady.
The Swiss, Australian, Swedish, Norwegian, and UK central banks did not hold policy meetings that month — they never got to vote.
This means → October's "collective pause" was part genuine hold, part scheduling gap — not every bank actively chose to wait.
Why doesn't a pause mean the end?
BNP Paribas economist Anis Bensaidani said explicitly: this pause does not mark the end of the tightening cycle.
Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics, noted: "Policy has become restrictive, but may not yet be restrictive enough."
In plain terms = rates have risen a lot, but inflation is not beaten yet — central banks could move again at any time.
How much tightening so far — and how aggressive was September?
According to Reuters, G10 central banks have delivered 14 rate hikes totaling 350 basis points this year. Not a single one has cut.
Just before October's pause, six G10 banks raised rates by a combined 150 basis points in September — the largest single-month tightening since June 2023.
This means → October's pause looks more like catching breath after slamming the brakes, not a U-turn signal.
Why does oil keep everyone on edge?
Brent crude futures posted double-digit percentage gains in both September and October, pushing inflation expectations higher.
In plain terms = when oil rises, transport, production, and consumer-goods costs all follow — exactly the "inflation comeback" central banks fear most.
This reflects the fact that even as central banks pause, external price pressures are not cooperating.
What are emerging markets doing?
Of the 18 developing economies tracked by Reuters, the Philippines and India raised rates by a combined 75 basis points in October; another 10 held steady.
Turkey was the outlier: it restarted its rate-cutting cycle after an eight-month break, cutting 100 basis points in a single move — the opposite direction from the global mainstream.
Year-to-date, these EM central banks have hiked a cumulative 675 basis points and cut 850 basis points. This means → emerging markets as a group pivoted toward easing earlier than advanced economies, but the divergence within the group is stark.
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