Memory Shortage Drags Down PC Market; Apple and Nvidia Among Few Bright Spots
0xBroomberg
AI-server buildouts are consuming memory-chip capacity, pushing up DRAM and NAND prices. Global PC shipments are forecast to drop roughly 10% year-on-year in 2026 — potentially 15% in a bear case — with Apple and Nvidia standing out as the few structural bright spots amid a supply-constrained market.
Why is memory suddenly in short supply?
AI-server construction is absorbing huge volumes of DRAM (working memory) and NAND (storage chips), simultaneously tightening CPU supply. This means → PC makers are competing with AI servers for the same pool of chips, driving prices up and availability down.
After a brief 2025 rebound, the global PC market is weakening again. Multiple research firms forecast 2026 shipments down about 10% year-on-year, with a bear-case decline of 15%.
In plain terms = chip-fab capacity is finite. Every extra wafer that goes to AI is one fewer wafer for PCs — this is a supply problem, not a demand problem.
Why can Apple and Asus still grow against the tide?
Apple's 2026 MacBook shipment target is 25.2 million units, up roughly 2.3 million year-on-year. The incremental volume comes mainly from the MacBook Neo, a lower-priced model powered by a lower-spec A18 Pro chip.
Apple's core challenge is not pricing but supply — MacBook Air remains back-ordered, and hitting the target depends heavily on memory availability. This means → Apple has the demand and the product; the bottleneck is securing enough memory.
Asus has set its 2026 laptop target at 19 million units (up from 17.8 million in 2025), banking on education and enterprise demand to offset weak consumer spending.
How tough is it for mainstream brands?
Lenovo: consumer-laptop shipments expected to fall roughly 25%; commercial units down about 10% — the consumer segment is hardest hit.
HP: commercial PCs aim to hold flat, but consumer laptops are forecast down about 10% and desktop shipments could plunge 50%.
Acer: laptops expected down only about 5%, but desktops and Chromebooks drag on the overall picture. This reflects a broader pattern — desktops use more memory per unit and are hit hardest in a shortage.
Can education and commercial segments hold up?
Chromebook shipments rebounded to roughly 19.4 million units in 2025 on education demand, but memory and CPU shortages are expected to pull 2026 volumes down to about 17.9 million, a 7.7% year-on-year decline — far milder than the consumer-PC drop.
Platform share is shifting: Intel's combined Chromebook share is forecast to fall from about 65% in 2025 to 51%; MediaTek's share is expected to jump from 28% to 44%. This means → Intel's CPU shortage is pushing brands like Asus to adopt MediaTek platforms at scale.
Dynabook — renamed after Sharp acquired Toshiba's PC business — expects 2026 shipments of roughly 2.4 million units, down about 7.7%, with the Japanese enterprise market accounting for about 80% of its volume.
Nvidia vs. Qualcomm in AI PCs — who has the edge?
High-end AI PCs powered by Nvidia's RTX Spark "super chip" are expected to launch in Q4 2026. Despite a premium price tag, they are seen as a market bright spot.
Qualcomm's Arm-based AI PCs began seeing retail discounts shortly after launch — pricing pressure is already visible. In plain terms = Nvidia is playing the premium end with room for markups; Qualcomm is competing on value, but its prices are already buckling.
PC makers have raised prices to pass through higher component costs, but the price hikes further suppress end-user demand, creating a negative feedback loop.
When does this ease up?
New memory capacity is not expected to come online until 2027–2028. Until then, the structural pressure on the PC market is unlikely to materially ease.
Whether Apple can hit its 25.2-million-unit target will serve as a key barometer for memory-supply improvement. This means → if even Apple cannot secure enough memory, smaller brands face an even tougher road.
In plain terms = this is not a one-quarter fix — the industry likely needs at least two more years for new fabs to ramp up.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.