Middle East Oil Exports Recover to Pre-War Levels, but Hormuz Strait Throughput Still Down 30%
nashnova research
Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 24.6 million barrels per day, topping pre-war levels — yet the Strait of Hormuz is still carrying over a third less traffic than before, exposing a supply chain held together by detours, not recovery.
Exports are back — so why isn't the supply chain fixed?
Kpler data show Gulf producers (excluding Iran) exported 24.6 million b/d in the week to Oct 18, above the pre-war average of 23.3 million b/d and the highest since mid-February.
Yet actual Hormuz Strait throughput remains more than one-third below pre-war levels.
This means → the headline number is propped up by three workarounds, not by the main artery reopening: ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz, pipeline exports via Yanbu on the Red Sea, and direct loading from Red Sea ports.
In plain terms = the highway is still blocked; the cargo is taking back roads. The number recovered; the risk hasn't.
How long can the detours hold?
Saudi Aramco has repaired the Yanbu pipeline, which saw flows plunge after a mid-September attack. Post-repair volumes have bounced back.
But regional attacks continue: UK Maritime Trade Operations logged 28 vessel attacks in October, up from 18 in September.
This means → the alternative routes are themselves under fire — a fix-one, hit-one cycle that has not broken.
Kpler adds that current export data are far more volatile than pre-war readings and remain preliminary, subject to revision.
Exports recovered — so why is oil still rallying?
Brent crude hit its highest since May on Tuesday, then climbed another 2.1% on Wednesday to $111.03 per barrel.
Rising exports and rising prices coexist. This reflects a market that has not stopped worrying about supply-chain durability.
In plain terms = the market isn't pricing how much oil left port today — it's pricing whether the route will still be open tomorrow. Whether Hormuz throughput can meaningfully recover remains the key variable for Middle East supply risk.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。