Ming-Chi Kuo: MediaTek Exclusively Wins Google TPU v9 Upgrade Chip Order
N.R. Finch
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo revealed on June 22 that Google is developing Triggerfish, an upgraded variant of its TPU v9 chip, and MediaTek has won the exclusive order — cementing MediaTek's role as Google's go-to AI chip partner and setting up a clear growth driver for 2028.
What is Triggerfish, and how does it differ from the current TPU v9?
Triggerfish is an upgraded variant of Google's TPU v9 (codenamed Humufish), built to sharply boost inference performance.
Three key upgrades: SRAM capacity up 2–3×, a new analog die added to the package, and memory upgraded from HBM4 to HBM4E.
This means → Google isn't designing a new chip from scratch — it's making targeted enhancements to the existing architecture, aimed squarely at breaking through inference-stage bottlenecks.
Why add an analog die?
Kuo says the new analog die's core function is to support reinforcement learning — a training method where AI improves by trial and error — and AI Agent coordination.
It also handles local TPU management and switching between training and inference modes.
In plain terms = tasks that previously had to leave the chip for processing now stay inside the package on a dedicated die, cutting the cost of shuffling data back and forth.
How does bigger SRAM complement this design?
Reinforcement learning and AI Agents require large active working sets — the slice of data a chip is actively processing. With SRAM expanded 2–3×, more of that data stays on the TPU locally.
This means → far fewer data-transfer trips, and significantly better efficiency during ultra-low-latency decoding.
This reflects Google redesigning its chip architecture around inference-heavy workloads — the CPU wall (processor performance ceiling) and memory wall (memory bandwidth ceiling) are the two barriers it is tackling head-on.
How big is the order, and what does it mean for MediaTek?
Kuo maintains his forecast of 4–5 million Humufish units over its lifecycle, with Triggerfish adding an estimated 1–2 million extra units.
Triggerfish carries a ~30% higher unit price than Humufish, with mass production starting late 2027 and volume ramp in 2028.
This means → MediaTek isn't landing one order in the TPU v9 generation — it's landing two, and the second one carries higher prices and fatter margins, making it a major growth engine for MediaTek in 2028.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.