Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co. Both Raise FY2026 Profit Forecasts to Record Highs
nashnova research
Mitsubishi Corp and Mitsui & Co simultaneously lifted their FY2026 net-profit forecasts to all-time highs, powered by rising energy and metals prices; Mitsubishi also unveiled a buyback of up to ¥1 trillion, shifting market focus to whether both houses can hold profits if commodity prices retreat.
How much did Mitsubishi raise its forecast?
Full-year net profit now targets ¥1.2 trillion, up 9% from the May estimate of ¥1.1 trillion — a new record.
First-half profit (April–September) surged 74% year-on-year to ¥619.7 billion. This means → half a year already covered more than half the full-year goal, making the upward revision almost inevitable.
Mitsubishi simultaneously announced a buyback of up to ¥1 trillion, retiring as much as 6% of shares outstanding. In plain terms = the company is not just earning more — it is willing to spend on buybacks, signaling confidence to shareholders.
What about Mitsui's numbers?
Full-year net-profit forecast raised 14% from ¥920 billion to ¥1.05 trillion, also a record.
CEO Kenichi Hori set a medium-term target: net profit exceeding ¥1.1 trillion by FY2028, with ROE (return on equity — how much profit each unit of shareholder capital generates) above 12%.
This means → Mitsui is not just reporting a good year; it is trying to anchor market expectations on a multi-year growth trajectory.
Why does LNG deserve a separate look?
Mitsui currently handles 12 million tonnes of LNG (liquefied natural gas) per year and plans to add 3 million tonnes by 2030 through higher offtake.
Hori said total volume, including spot trades, could reach 20 million tonnes. In plain terms = going from 12 to 20 million tonnes means expanding capacity by more than 60% — LNG is becoming Mitsui's core growth engine.
This reflects a broader shift among Japanese trading houses: moving energy operations from "earning the spread" to "controlling resource volume," locking in longer-duration revenue.
What is the market watching next?
Both houses hitting records traces directly to rising energy and metals prices — a cyclical tailwind, not a structural change.
Mitsubishi CEO Katsuya Nakanishi explicitly stated: the FY2027 target of at least ¥1.2 trillion does not depend on further commodity-price increases. This means → management is voluntarily tying itself to a "de-cyclicalization" promise, and delivering on it will be the key test for the market's valuation conviction.
Put simply = making money when prices rise is easy; making the same money when prices stop rising — that is the real exam for trading-house valuations.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。