Mitsubishi Power: Gas Turbine Demand Surges, Lead Times Extended to 2031
nashnova research
Mitsubishi Power's Asia-Pacific CEO says new gas turbine orders now deliver around 2031, with 2028–2029 slots nearly full — data-center expansion and energy transition are pushing the industry into a rare seller's market.
Deliveries out to 2031 — how extreme is the backlog?
Akihiro Ondo, Mitsubishi Power's Asia-Pacific CEO, told Singapore International Energy Week that new orders deliver around 2031. 2028 and 2029 slots are nearly full.
He estimates global new orders this year will reach 70–80 GW, far above historical averages.
This means → from order to delivery, buyers wait roughly six years. This is not ordinary tightness — it signals an industry whose capacity is effectively locked up.
Why is everyone suddenly buying gas turbines?
Three forces are hitting at once: data-center expansion demands massive stable power, manufacturing reshoring lifts industrial load, and electrification raises total electricity demand.
Natural gas is seen as cleaner than coal and can provide reliable backup when wind and solar output fluctuates.
In plain terms = wind and solar depend on weather. Gas turbines are the "always-on standby." The more renewables a grid adds, the more gas backup it needs.
Gas prices at a four-year high — will that cool demand?
Middle East tensions have disrupted Persian Gulf supply, lifting the global gas benchmark to a four-year high.
Yet Ondo stated clearly that gas demand "will continue to grow."
This reflects a structural point: gas-turbine demand is driven by the power gap, not fuel price. As long as electricity falls short, buyers pay up regardless.
Which regions are racing to order?
North America remains the largest market, driven by data-center construction.
Asia-Pacific interest is rising fast, with Southeast Asia the standout — AI-related demand in Malaysia and Singapore is rapidly expanding local procurement appetite.
This means → the AI boom's impact has now traveled down the chain from chips and servers all the way to power-generation equipment.
Can manufacturers keep up?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Mitsubishi Power's parent) announced in 2025 a plan to double capacity within two years.
But the squeeze is industry-wide — GE Vernova and Siemens Energy face the same orders-exceeding-capacity pressure.
In plain terms = only a handful of companies worldwide can build large gas turbines, and all of them are booked solid. With lead times still stretching, who gets priority delivery and at what price becomes the market's central question.
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