Mizuho and BofA Raise Sandisk Price Targets: New Memory Supply Unlikely to Come Online Before 2028
Claire Weston
Mizuho and Bank of America both raised Sandisk price targets sharply — to $2,200 and $2,100 respectively — on the same core call: AI-driven memory demand keeps expanding while no meaningful new supply lands before 2028, locking in a widening shortage.
Two major banks raised targets at once — what did they see?
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh raised Sandisk's target from $1,825 to $2,200, maintaining an "outperform" rating.
BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan followed, raising from $1,550 to $2,100 with a "buy" rating.
This means → two firms independently reached the same conclusion: the memory supply shortage won't ease any time soon, and Sandisk still has room to run.
Why can't supply keep up?
Sandisk's core input is NAND flash wafers — the chips that store data. Mizuho estimates NAND wafer starts will decline in 2026 and recover only modestly in 2027.
The key call: no meaningful new supply comes online before 2028.
In plain terms = the factories that make memory chips are already stretched, and building new ones takes years. In the near term, supply only gets tighter.
What is driving demand?
Mizuho projects memory demand will grow at roughly 18% annually over the next two years.
The core driver is AI — training and running large models requires massive high-speed storage.
This means → supply is shrinking while demand is surging. The gap only widens through 2027–2028 — and that widening gap is the foundation of both banks' bullish case.
What is Sandisk's "new business model" contract structure?
BofA's Mohan highlights that Sandisk is increasingly signing multi-year agreements with customers: fixed pricing in the initial phase, floating pricing afterward.
Over one-third of Sandisk's estimated FY2027 revenue will come from these contracts.
In plain terms = think of it as a "floor plus upside" structure — even if memory prices hit bottom, margins stay within guidance; if prices rise, Sandisk captures the upside too. This reflects a shift from a cyclical commodity business toward more stable, predictable earnings.
The stock has already surged — is there still room?
Sandisk rose 5.55% Monday to $164.50, partially recovering Friday's 11% single-day drop.
The bigger picture: the stock is up 557% year-to-date in 2026 and roughly 3,600% over the past 12 months.
This means → both banks chose to raise targets *after* a massive run-up, signaling they believe the supply-demand imbalance story is far from over. But gains this large also mean any miss on expectations could trigger sharp volatility.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.